Analysis and Forecast on China Dairy Industry (2015-2016)

Analysis and Forecast on China Dairy Industry (2015-2016)

Code: BOABC 173 | Published: Mar-2016 | Pages: 115 | Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultant Ltd
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This Report is the crystallization of collective intelligence of dairy research group of Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultants Limited. The senior dairy analysts of dairy research group of BOABC are the members of "thinking bank" in related government departments and associations, who keep good relationship with these departments and associations as well as national key dairy enterprise, correlative industry and enterprise. These resource superiorities provide particularly precious professional support for the composition of this Report, and also guarantee the accuracy, authority, scientificity and perspectiveness of the data cited herein. BOABC believes this Report will be the important reference material for strategic decision-making of domestic and overseas investment company, dairy enterprise, dairy burdening supplier, and related equipment supplier as well as such organizations as guild and research institution.

Introduction
2015 was another important turning point in the history of Chinas dairy industry. There was pacing up of the transition from extensive quantity growth to intensive quality and efficient growth, and there was the transition from unconventional unregulated growth to steady regulated growth.

Features of Chinas dairy industry in 2015:

(1) Chinas GDP growth was "larger than 7%", the growth of food consumption slipped, whereas dairy processing companies were digesting their stock during most of the time.

(2) Raw milk production cost kept at a high level, but raw milk price kept on falling, dairy farming ran in deficit and some farmers had to give up dairy farming.

(3) Lots of dairy companies devoted great effort to exploration of the top-end market and reduced the production of medium/low-end products, which restrained dairy consumption to a certain extent.

(4) The development mode of dairy companys "high input and high output" lost the comparative advantage in international competition. While the market is completely open, domestic top-end brands are at an inferior position in international competition.

(5) Quality and safety incidents involving dairy products seriously hurt consumers confidence on domestic made products (especially infant/young childs formula milk powder), and such negative impacts sustained in 2015.

(6) Dairy farming would continue to be under close scrutiny of the public and the Government in food safety, epidemic control and environmental pollution, and more and more attention would be attracted from the media and the society.

Chinas dairy industry shall still have sound development opportunities:

(1) Currently the per capita milk consumption of domestic residents is less than 20kg, less than 1/4 of the world average level, more and more residents gradually recognize the nutritious value of dairy products, hence the market shall have a huge potential in the future.

(2) The Government strengthens support and regulation on the industry, the processing industry is being disciplined, the competition of dairy market is becoming more orderly, and the margin of dairy processing has improved.

(3) After the adoption of the two-children per family policy, the annual average net increase of population shall be larger than 3 million, hence there shall be 20 billion yuan increased demand for infant/young childs formula milk.

(4) Lots of international dairy Titans are positive towards China, while intensifying market competition, they would also help to promote the upgrading of the domestic dairy industry to a certain extent.

(5) Yili became one of the Top 10 dairy enterprises in the world in 2015. Chinese dairy companies implement the "going out" strategy and the scale shall become larger and larger.

This Report panoramically expounds the current situation of China dairy industry in 2015, including the production of raw milk and dairy product, dairy consumption, dairy trade, price tendency of raw milk and dairy product, operational condition of China dairy industry, competitive situation of China dairy market, business performance and investment situation of key dairy enterprise, world dairy market trend, production, consumption and trade status of major countries of dairy production and trade, influence of work dairy market environment upon China diary industry, and the forecasting upon the development tendency of China diary industry in 2016.

This Report is the crystallization of collective intelligence of dairy research group of Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultants Limited. The senior dairy analysts of dairy research group of BOABC are the members of "thinking bank" in related government departments and associations, who keep good relationship with these departments and associations as well as national key dairy enterprise, correlative industry and enterprise. These resource superiorities provide particularly precious professional support for the composition of this Report, and also guarantee the accuracy, authority, scientificity and perspectiveness of the data cited herein. BOABC believes this Report will be the important reference material for strategic decision-making of domestic and overseas investment company, dairy enterprise, dairy burdening supplier, and related equipment supplier as well as such organizations as guild and research institution.
Table of Content
Introduction 1
Chapter 1 Policy Environment for Dairy Industry in China 12
1.1 Overview 12
1.2 Policy 12
1.2.1 ""Food Safety Law of P.R. China"" 12
1.2.2 ""Advertisement Law of P.R. China"" 12
1.2.3 ""Management Methods on Food Recall"" 12
1.2.4 ""Management Methods on Licensing Food Production"" 13
1.2.5 ""Management Methods on Licensing Food Operation"" 13
1.2.6 ""Management Methods on Registration of Infant Formulas (draft)"" 13
Chapter 2 Raw Milk Production in China in 2015 14
2.1 Overviews 14
2.2 Dairy Cattle Farming Distribution 14
2.3 Dairy Cattle Inventory 15
2.4 Raw Milk Production and Milk Yield Per-Cow 16
2.4.1 Milk Yield Per-Cow Increased Slightly 16
2.4.2 Milk Yield Increased Slightly 18
2.5 Raw Milk Price 19
2.6 Dairy Cattle Farming Cost and Profit 20
2.6.1 Dairy Cattle Farming Cost 20
2.6.2 Dairy Cattle Farming Profit 21
2.6.3 Comparative Analysis of Dairy Cattle Farming Cost and Profit in Major Provinces 22
2.7 Scale & Models of Dairy Cattle Farming in China 23
2.7.1 Dairy Cattle Inventory by Different Farming Scale 23
2.7.2 Analysis of Dairy Cattle Farming Models 24
Chapter 3 2015 Dairy Industry Analysis in China 26
3.1 Production and Management of Dairy Industry 26
3.1.1 Overviews 26
3.1.2 Sales Revenue& Profit 26
3.2 Dairy Processing 27
3.2.1 Liquid Milk 27
3.2.2 Solid Dairy Products 29
3.2.3 Milk Powder 30
3.2.4 Infant/young Childs Formula Milk Powder 32
3.2.5 Other Solid Products 32
Chapter 4 Trade of Dairy Products and Other Relevant Products in 2015 33
4.1 Dairy Trade 33
4.1.1 Change in Dairy Imports Volume and Value 33
4.1.2 Changes in Dairy Imports by Categories 33
4.2 Liquid Milk Import 34
4.2.1 Liquid Milk Imports 0.46 Million MT 34
4.2.2 Liquid Milk with 1-6% Fat Content as the Major Import Category 35
4.2.3 Imports from Germany and France up Greatly 35
4.3 Milk Powder Import 37
4.3.1 Milk Powder Imports dropped to 0.55 Million MT 37
4.3.2 SMP & No-Added-Sugar WMP Still as Major Import Categories 37
4.3.3 Milk Powder Import Price 38
4.3.4 New Zealand Originated Milk Powder down Significantly 39
4.4 Whey Powder Import 39
4.4.1 Whey Powder Imports Rose 39
4.4.2 Import Whey Powder Mainly from US 40
4.4.3 Whey Powder Import Price 41
4.5 Milk Fat 42
4.5.1 Milk Fat Imports down 11% from 2014 42
4.5.2 Imports Milk Fat Mainly from New Zealand 42
4.6 Cheese Import 43
4.6.1 Cheese Imports up 15% from 2014 43
4.6.2 Imports Cheese Mainly from New Zealand, Australia and US 44
4.7 Infant Food Import 44
4.7.1 Infant/young Childs Formula Milk Powder Imports Volume Rose 44
4.7.2 Import Infant Formula Mainly from EU 45
4.7.3 Infant Formula Import Price 46
4.8 Dairy Related Products Import 47
4.8.1 Casein Import 47
4.8.2 Whey Protein Concentrate (WPC) Import 47
4.8.3 Lactose Anhydrous Import 48
4.8.4 Ice Cream Import 49
4.9 Dairy Farming Import 49
4.9.1 Cattle Frozen Semen Import 49
4.9.1.1 Change in Frozen Semen Import Volume & Price 49
4.9.1.2 Frozen Semen Import Price by Original Country 50
4.9.2 Dairy Cattle Import 50
4.9.2.1 Change in Dairy Cattle Imports 50
4.9.2.2 Dairy Cattle Imports by Original Country 51
4.9.3 Hay Import 52
4.9.3.1 Change in Hay Imports 52
4.9.3.2 Change in Alfalfa Import Volume & Price 53
4.10 Dairy Export 53
4.10.1 Overview 53
4.10.2 Structure of Dairy Export 54
Chapter 5 Dairy Consumption in China 55
5.1 Overview 55
5.2 Analysis of Dairy Consumption by Urban Residents 56
5.3 Regional Analysis of Dairy Consumption by Urban Residents 57
5.4 Dairy Consumption by Rural Residents 58
5.5 Changes in Dairy Products Prices 59
5.5.1 Changes in Liquid Milk Products Prices 59
5.5.2 Changes in Milk Powder Price 59
5.6 Market Capacity of Infant Formula 60
5.6.1 National 60
5.6.2 Cities in Different Regions 60
5.7 Other Elements Affecting Dairy Prices 62
5.7.1 Price for White Sugar 62
5.7.2 CPI 62
5.7.3 RMB Exchange Rate 63
5.7.4 Petroleum Price 64
Chapter 6 Competition of Chinas Dairy Market in 2015 65
6.1 Overview 65
6.2 Competition of Raw Milk Market 65
6.3 Competition of Infant Formula Market 65
6.4 Competition of Liquid Milk Market 67
Chapter 7 Key Dairy Processing Companies in 2015 68
7.1 Overview Consolidation of Dairy Companies 68
7.2 Key Companies 68
7.2.1 Yili 68
7.2.1.1 Operation 68
7.2.1.2 Strategic Measures 69
7.2.2 China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited 69
7.2.2.1 Operation 69
7.2.2.2 Business Review 71
7.2.3 Bright Diary & Food Co.,Ltd 72
7.2.3.1 Operation 72
7.2.3.2 Strategic Measures 73
7.2.4 Sanyuan 73
7.2.4.1 Operation 73
7.2.4.2 Strategic Measures 74
7.2.5 Beingmate 75
7.2.5.1 Operation 75
7.2.5.2 Strategic Measures 76
7.2.6 Yantang 76
7.2.6.1 Operation 76
7.2.6.2 Strategic Measures 77
7.2.7 Royal Dairy 78
7.2.7.1 Operation 78
7.2.7.2 Strategic Measures 79
7.2.8 Modern Dairy 79
7.2.8.1 Operation 79
7.2.8.2 Strategic Measures 81
Chapter 8 World Dairy Market in 2015 82
8.1 Overview 82
8.1.1 Global Raw Milk and Processed Dairy Production 82
8.1.2 Global Prices of Raw Milk & Dairy Products 88
8.1.2.1 Raw Milk Price 88
8.1.2.2 Price of Dairy Products 89
8.2 Dairy Market of Key Dairy Producing and Trading Countries in 2015 92
8.2.1 New Zealand 92
8.2.1.1 Dairy Cattle Inventory 92
8.2.1.2 Dairy Cattle Yield per Cow 93
8.2.1.3 Milk Production 93
8.2.1.4 Changes in Milk Price 94
8.2.2 Australia 94
8.2.2.1 Production of Milk and Other Processed Dairy Products 94
8.2.2.2 Liquid Milk Production 95
8.2.2.3 Dairy Cattle Export 96
8.2.3 America 97
8.2.3.1 Production of Milk and Other Processed Products 97
8.2.4 EU 99
Chapter 9 Outlook of Chinas Dairy Industry in 2016 100
9.1 Overview 100
9.2 Raw Milk Production 100
9.2.1 Dairy Cattle Inventory to Reach 14.37 Million Heads, Raw Milk Output 38.0 Million MT 100
9.2.2 Dairy Farm Margin to Be 3,000 RMB/Head 101
9.2.3 Forecast of Dairy Farming Scale Development 101
9.3 Dairy Processing 102
9.3.1 Main Varieties 102
9.3.1.1 Dairy Output to Increase to 29.5 Million MT 102
9.3.1.2 Liquid Milk Output to Increase to 26.5 Million MT 102
9.3.1.3 Milk Powder Output to Stay around 1.47 Million MT 103
9.3.2 Other Dairy Products 104
9.4 Forecast of 2016 Dairy Products Import and Export 104
9.4.1 Import 104
9.4.1.1 Dairy Products Imports to Growing 104
9.4.1.2 Milk Powder Imports rise to 0.6 Million MT 104
9.4.1.3 Whey Powder Imports to Reach 0.45 Million MT 105
9.4.1.4 Non-Fermented Liquid Milk Import to Reach 0.55 million MT 106
9.4.1.5 Cheese Imports to Reach 85,000 MT 106
9.4.2 Export 107
9.5 Price Trend of Raw Milk and Dairy Products 107
9.5.1 Raw Milk Price 107
9.5.2 Dairy Products Price 108
9.6 Dairy Consumption 108
9.7 Competition Pattern of Dairy Market 109
Attached Table 110



Figures
Figure 2-1, Dairy Cattle Inventory by Province 15
Figure 2-2, Change of Dairy Cattle Inventory in China, 1973-2015 16
Figure 2-3, Dairy Cattle Inventory by Province in 2015 16
Figure 2-4, Per-Head Raw Milk Output of Adult Dairy Cattle in China, 2005-2015 17
Figure 2-5, Per-Head Raw Milk Output of Adult Dairy Cattle by Province in 2015 18
Figure 2-6, Raw Milk Production in China, 1973-2015 18
Figure 2-7, Per-Head Raw Milk Output of Adult Dairy Cattle by Province in 2015 19
Figure 2-8, China Milk Price in Ten Biggest Region, 2010-2015 20
Figure 2-9, Corn and Soybean Meal Prices in Major Milk Producing Provinces, 2010-2015 21
Figure 2-10, Change of Raw Milk Price and Dairy Cattle Farming Profit in Major Milk Producing Provinces by Month, 2010-2015 22
Figure 2-11, Change in Cattle Inventory Proportion of Different Farming Sizes, 2007-2015 24
Figure 2-12 , Cattle Inventory Proportion of Different Farming Models in China in 2015 25
Figure 3-3, Liquid Milk Output and Growth Rate in China, 2000-2015 28
Figure 3-4, Area Distribution of Liquid Milk Output Production in China, 2015 28
Figure 3-6, Solid Dairy Products Output and Growth Rate in China, 2000-2015 29
Figure 3-7, Share of Leading Provincial Solid Dairy Production in National Total, 2015 30
Figure 3-8, Trend of Milk Powder Production in China, 2000-2015 31
Figure 3-9, Proportion of Provincial MilkPowder Production in National Total, 2015 31
Figure 4-1, China Dairy Products Import Structure , 2004-2015 34
Figure 4-2, China Fresh Milk Import Volume and Price, 2010-2015 34
Figure 4-3, China Non-Fermented Liquid Milk Import Structure, 2004-2015 35
Figure 4-4, Non-Fermented Liquid Milk Imports by Source Country, 2003-2015 36
Figure 4-5, China Non-Fermented Liquid Milk Import Prices by Source Country, 2005-2015 36
Figure 4-6, China Milk Powder Import Volume and Price, 2009~2015 37
Figure 4-7, China Milk Powder Imports by Product Category, 2003-2015 38
Figure 4-8, China Milk Powder Import Prices by Source Country,2006-2015 38
Figure 4-9, China Milk Powder Imports by Source Country, 2003-2015 39
Figure 4-10, China Whey Powder Imports and Growth Rate, 2003-2015 40
Figure 4-11, China Whey Powder Imports by Source Country in 2015 40
Figure 4-12, China Whey Powder Import Prices by Source Country, 2007-2015 41
Figure 4-13, China Milk Fat Imports and Growth Rate, 2006-2015 42
Figure 4-14, China Milk Fat Imports by Source Country 43
Figure 4-15, China Cheese Imports and Growth Rate, 2006-2015 43
Figure 4-16, China Cheese Imports by Source Country, 2004-2015 44
Figure 4-17, China Infant Formula Imports and Growth Rate, 2009-2015 45
Figure 4-18, China Infant Formula Imports by Source Country, 2009-2015 45
Figure 4-19, China Infant Formula Import Volume and Price by Month, 2013-2015 46
Figure 4-20, China Casein Imports by Source Country, 2004-2015 47
Figure 4-21, China WPC Imports by Source Country, 2004-2015 48
Figure 4-22, China Lactose Anhydrous Imports by Source Country, 2004-2015 48
Figure 4-23, China Ice Cream Imports by Source Country, 2004-2015 49
Figure 4-24, China Cattle Frozen Semen Import Volume and Value, 2005-2015 50
Figure 4-25, China Dairy Cattle Imports, 2006-2015 51
Figure 4-26, China Dairy Cattle Imports by Source Country in 2015 51
Figure 4-27, China Hay Imports and Exports, 2006-2015 52
Figure 4-28, China Hay Imports by Source Country, 2015 52
Figure 4-29, China Alfalfa Import Volume and Price by Month, 2010-2015 53
Figure 4-30, Structure of Dairy Export from China, by Volume, 2004-2015 54
Figure 5-1, Per Capita milk and Dairy Consumption Quantity of Rural Residents, 2000-2015 58
Figure 5-2, Change in UHT Milk and Yogurt Retail Price in China Whole Market by Month, 2013-2015 59
Figure 5-3, China Infant Formula Milk Powder Average Retail Price with Foreign and Domestic Brand, 2013-2015 60
Figure 5-4, Regional Distribution of Urban Infant Population and Infant Milk Powder Market Capacity (By Consumption Volume) in Chinas Different Provinces and Regions, 2015 61
Figure 5-5, Average Price for White Granulated Sugar (cargo delivery price in producing venues), 2010-2015 62
Figure 5-6, CPI Growing Trend in China, by Month, 2008-2015 63
Figure 5-7, Trend of Exchange Rate between USD and RMB, 2008-2015 63
Figure 5-8, Trend of International Petroleum Future Price, 2006-2014 64
Figure 6-1, Whole Milk Powder Enterprises Number by Province, 2015 66
Figure 8-1, World Milk Prices, 2012-2015 88
Figure 8-2, Global Prices of Feed for Dairy Cattle, 2009-2015 89
Figure 8-3, Global Average Milk : feed Price Ratio Trend, 2010-2015 89
Figure 8-4, Global Prices (FAS) of WMP, 2012-2015 90
Figure 8-5, Global Prices (FAS) of SMP, 2012-2015 90
Figure 8-6, Global Prices (FAS) of Butter, 2013-2015 91
Figure 8-7, Global Prices (FAS) of AMF, 2012-2015 91
Figure 8-8, Global Prices (FAS) of Cheddar Cheese, 2012-2015 92
Figure 8-9, Change of Dairy Cattle Inventory in New Zealand, 2003-2015 92
Figure 8-10, Per-Head Raw Milk Output of Adult Dairy Cattle in New Zealand, 2004-2015 93
Figure 8-11, Raw Milk Production in New Zealand, 2004-2015 93
Figure 8-12, New Zealand Raw Milk Price, 2004-2015 94
Figure 8-9, Change of Dairy Cattle Inventory in Australia, 1999-2015 95
Figure 8-10, Export proportion of Australian, 2015.01-2015.06 96
Figure 8-11, The number and proportion of China from imported Australian cows, 2015 96
Figure 8-12, Trend of Average Milk Prices in USA, 2012-2015 98
Figure 9-1, Forecast of 2016 Chinas Dairy Cattle Inventory and Milk Production 100
Figure 9-2, Forecast of 2016 Percentage of Dairy Cattle Farms with more 100 Inventories 101
Figure 9-3, Forecast of 2016 China Dairy Output 102
Figure 9-4, Forecast of 2016 China Liquid Milk Output 103
Figure 9-5, Forecast of 2016 China Milk Powder Output 103
Figure 9-6, Forecast of 2016 China Dairy Imports 104
Figure 9-7, Forecast of 2016 China Milk Powder Imports 105
Figure 9-9, Forecast of 2016 China Whey Powder Imports 105
Figure 9-10, Forecast of 2016 China Non-Fermented Liquid Milk Imports 106
Figure 9-11, Forecast of 2016 China Cheese Imports 107



Tables
Table 2-1, Feed Prices and Costs for Dairy Cattle Farming in Major Producing Provinces, 2012-2015 20
Table 2-2, Raw Milk Price and Dairy Cattle Farming Profit in Major Milk Producing Provinces, 2012-2015 21
Table 2-3, Raw Milk Price and Dairy Cattle Farming Cost & Profit in Major Milk Producing Provinces, 2014-2015 23
Table 2-4, The Division Standard of Different Cattle Inventory Sizes 23
Table 2-5, Cattle Inventory Proportion of Different Dairy Farming Models in China 24
Table 3-1, Development Indices of Dairy Industry, 2007-2015 26
Table 3-2, Asset Management Ratio of Dairy Industry, 2007-2015 27
Table 4-1 China Dairy Products Import, 2012-2015 33
Table 4-2, China Milk Powder Import Volumes & Prices by Product Category, 2014-2015 39
Table 4-3, China Whey Powder Import Volumes & Prices by Source Country, 2014-2015 42
Table 4-4, China Whey Powder Import Volumes & Prices by Source Country, 2014-2015 46
Table 4-5, China Frozen Semen Import Price by Original Country, 2011-2015 50
Table 4-6, Dairy Export from China, 2014-2015 54
Table 5-1, Per Capita Dairy Possession Quantity in China, 1992-2015 55
Table 5-2, Share of Per capita Consumpion of Dairy Products in the Total Food Consumpion of Urban Residents, 2009-2015 58
Table 6-1, Infant Formula Milk Powder Consumption Level Per Capita of Chinas Urban and Rural Babies, 2003-2015 66
Table 7-1, Total Profit of Yili Group, 2011~2015 68
Table 7-2, Core Business of Yili Group, 1st half of 2015 69
Table 7-3, Core Business of Yili Group, by Region, 1st half of 2015 69
Table 7-4, Total Profit of Mengniu, 2011~2015 70
Table 7-5, Revenue of Different Products of Mengniu, 2014-2015 71
Table 7-6, Profit of Bright Dairy, 2011~2015 72
Table 7-7, Core Sector of Bright Dairy, half of 2015 72
Table 7-8, Core Business of Bright Dairy, by Region, half of 2015 73
Table 7-9, Profit of Sanyuan Foods, 2011-2015 74
Table 7-10, Core Sector of Sanyuan Foods, half of 2015 74
Table 7-11, Core Sector of Sanyuan Foods, by Region, half of 2015 74
Table 7-12, Financial Situation of Beingmate, 2011-2015 75
Table 7-13, Core Sector of Beingmate, half of 2015 76
Table 7-14, Core Sector of Beingmate, by Region, half of 2015 76
Table 7-15, Production & Business Benefits of Yantang Dairy, 2011-2015 77
Unit: CNY million, % 77
Table 7-16, Core Sector of Yantang Dairy, 2015 77
Table 7-17, Core Sector of Yantang Dairy, 2015 77
Table 7-18, Financial Situation of Royal Dairy, 2011-2015 78
Table 7-19, Core Sector of Royal Dairy, half of 2015 79
Table 7-20, Core Sector of Royal Dairy, by Region, half of 2015 79
Table 7-21, Total Profit of Modern Dairy, 2011~2015 79
Table 7-22, Total Profit of Modern Dairy, 1st Three Quarters of 2015 80
Table 8-1, Fluid Milk - Cow Numbers: Summary For Selected Countries, 2010-2015 82
Table 8-2, Cows Milk Production and Consumption: Summary For Selected Countries, 2010-2016 83
Table 8-3, Top 20 Milk Processors List 2014 84
Table 8-4, Butter Production and Consumption: Summary For Selected Countries, 2010-2015 85
Table 8-5, Cheese Production and Consumption: Summary For Selected Countries , 2010-2015 86
Table 8-6, Nonfat Dry Milk Trade: Summary For Selected Countries, 2010-2015 87
Table 8-7, Whole Milk Powder Production And Consumption: Summary For Selected Countries, 2010-2015 87
Table 8-8, Dairy Cattle Inventory and Milk Production in the US, 2011-2015 97
Table 8-9, Dairy Production of USA, 2013-2015 99
Attached Table 1, Forecast of 2015 Raw Milk Supply-Demand Balance in China 110
Attached Table 2, WMP Supply-Demand Balance in China, 2011-2015 110
Attached Table 3, SMP Supply-Demand Balance in China, 2011-2015 111
Attached Table 4, Dairy Products Output by Province, 2008-2015 111
Attached Table 5, Liquid Milk Output by Province, 2008-2015 112
Attached Table 6, China Dairy Imports by Tariff Item, 2008-2015 113
Attached Table 7, China Dairy Exports by Tariff Item, 2008-2015 113
Attached Table 8, Chinas Dairy Cattle Inventory by Province, 2009-2015 114
Attached Table 9, Chinas Milk Production by Province, 2008-2015 115

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