Analysis and Forecast on China Feed Industry(2015-2016)

Analysis and Forecast on China Feed Industry(2015-2016)

Code: BOABC 172 | Published: Mar-2016 | Pages: 103 | Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultant Ltd
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This report will provide important decision-making to domestic and foreign feed material producers, traders, feed producers and investment companies and also will provide important reference for industrial associations and research institutions

Background
In 2015, due to a downturn of livestock and poultry farming sectors such as a drop in hog stocks and a continuous loss for poultry farming, feed output dropped slightly. Chinas macroeconomic growth entered a middle-high-speed growth period instead of a high-speed growth and the development of feed for livestock and poultry also represented new features. Although Chinas feed output kept stable with some decline, yet production profit improved. Influenced by an increase in supply at home and abroad, the prices of feed materials such as corn and soybean meal kept falling, of which corn price decreased by 20% year on year; soybean meal price has approached to a low level during the period of financial crisis in 2008, and many listed feed companies profits all increased greatly.

Economic structural transformation will continue in 2016 and feed producers and livestock/poultry farming companies also will have good developmental opportunities and challenges. This report will represent: main feed materials production, consumption and trade; changes in market price in main feed materials; operational situation of feed sector and competitiveness trends about feed sector; operating performance and investment situation of key feed companies; forecast on developmental trends of feed sector in 2016.

BOABC has been paying attention to Chinas feed sector for 20 consecutive years and also has been maintaining good relations with governmental departments, associations and key feed companies. Based on accurate and authoritative data, this report will represent scientific forecasts.

BOABCs report will provide important decision-making to domestic and foreign feed material producers, traders, feed producers and investment companies and also will provide important reference for industrial associations and research institutions
Table of Content
Chapter 1: Chinese Feed Feed industry analysis and forecast 9
1.1 The Change Of Chinese Feed Production in 2015 9
1.1.1 2015 Industrial Feed Output Recorded 192 Million MT, down 2.5% Year on Year 9
1.1.2 Large-Scale Feed Companies (Groups) Output Descended 9
1.2 The Change Of Chinese Feed Product Structure in 2015 10
1.2.1 Proportion of Compound Feed in Industrial Feed Output Increased To 85.17% 10
1.2.2 Concentrated Feed Output Went Down 9.42% 11
1.2.3 Additive Premix Feed Output Decreased 12
1.3 2015 Feed Production And Structural Changes In Different Poultry Species 12
1.3.1 Hog Feed Output Dropped 15.15% 12
1.3.2 Meat Poultry Feed Output Ascended 15.83% 13
1.3.3 Egg Poultry Feed Output Fell 1.76% 14
1.3.4 Aqua Feed Output Went Down 19.33% 15
1.3.5 Ruminate Feed production declined slightly by 1.99% 15
1.3.6 Prices of Feed for Livestock/Poultry Kept Dropping 16
1.4 2016 Chinese Industrial Feed Industry Forecast 17
1.4.1 Industrial Feed Output to Steadily Go up 17
1.4.2 Corn price will lower and protein feed price will maintain at a low level 17
1.4.3 Industry Consolidation to Be Further Accelerated and Industrial Concentration to be Further Improved 17
Chapter 2: China Corn Market Analysis and Forecast 18
2.1 Chinese Corn Market Policy Analysis 18
2.1.1 Planting Structure was Adjusted, Reducing Corn Planting Areas in Non-dominant Producing Areas 18
2.1.2 A drop in purchase price for temporary storage for the first time 18
2.1.3 Subsidies for Corn Further Processing Companies Were Increased 18
2.2 2015 Chinese Corn Production 19
2.2.1 China corn production increased by 8.93 million tons in 2015 19
2.2.2 Corn Planting Areas and Yield both Improved 19
2.3 2015 China Corn Trade 20
2.3.1 Corn Imports Amounted To 4.73 Million Tons 20
2.3.2 Reduce the amount of corn imports from the United States, a substantial increase from the Ukraine 21
2.3.3 China corn exports continued to decline 21
2.4 2015 China Corn Demand 22
2.4.1 Corn Consumption Down 0.44% Year on Year 22
2.4.2 Feed Output Dropped and Feed Corn Consumption Fell 23
2.4.3 Increased demand for corn processing 23
2.5 Temporary storage price cut, corn prices went down 25
2.6 2015 Replacement Demand For Corn 25
2.6.1 Sorghum Imports Reached 10.69 Million MT 25
2.6.2 Barley imports reached 10.73 million MT 26
2.6.3 Wheat Price Increased and Substitution Volume Decreased 27
2.7 2016 China Corn Market Forecast 28
2.7.1 Temporary Corn Storage Policy to be Further Reformed and Stocks for Temporary Storage to be Alleviated 28
2.7.2 Corn Planting Structure Adjustment, Acreage Will Be Reduced 29
2.7.3 Due to Difference on Domestic and Foreign Price, Corn Import to Ascend Steadily 29
2.7.4 Owing to a Cheap Price, Cereal Alternative Import Volume to Further Ascend 30
Chapter 3: Plant Protein Feed Market Analysis and Forecast 30
3.1 Soybean Meal Market Analysis and Forecast 30
3.1.1 Global Soybean Output Increased and Soybean Meal Output Ascended 30
3.1.2 Soybean Import Kept Growing 31
3.1.3 Due to an Increase in Soybean Supply, Soybean Meal Price Kept Decreasing 32
3.1.4 In addition to increase the proportion of feed meal 33
3.1.5 Soymeal Meal Exports Fell 19% 33
3.1.6 The export of soybean meal is still in Japan 34
3.2 Rapeseed Market Analysis and Forecast 35
3.2.1 Rapeseed Sowing Areas Reduced and Rapeseed Meal Output Kept Decreasing 35
3.2.2 Rapeseed meal feed consumption fell by 1.37% 35
3.2.3 Rapeseed imports 4.46 million MT, down 12% 36
3.2.4 Rapeseed imports significantly reduced 54.7% 37
3.2.5 Along with a Drop in Soybean Meal Price, Rapeseed Meal Price Fell 38
3.3 Cottonseed Meal Market Analysis and Forecas 38
3.3.1 Cottonseed Output Went Down and Supply was Tight 38
3.3.2 Cottonseed meal exports continued to decline 39
3.3.3 Sustainable Development of Cattle and Sheep Farming Sectors Drove up Demand for Cottonseed Meal 40
3.3.4 Cottonseed Meal Price Fell 41
3.4 DDGS Market Analysis and Forecast 42
3.4.1 Owing to a Serious Deficit, Operating Rate of Alcohol Companies Reduced 42
3.4.2 DDGS Producers are Mainly Located in the Corn Producing Areas of Northeast and Huang-Huai Region 43
3.4.3 2015 DDGS imports amounted to 6.82 million MT 43
3.4.4 Anti-dumping and Anti-subsidy Investigation on DDGS Import 44
3.5 China Plant Protein Supply and Demand Balance Analysis and Forecast 44
Chapter 4: Animal Protein Feed Market Analysis and Forecast 45
4.1 International Fishmeal Market Analysis and Forecast 45
4.1.1 Peru fishing quota of 1.11 million MT, compared to the same period last year decreased 45
4.1.2 South American fish meal production decreased 3.7%, exports fell 1.78% 45
4.1.3 Influenced by the El Nino, Fish Meal Price to Increase in 2016 46
4.2 China Fishmeal Market Analysis and Forecast 47
4.2.1 The coastal fish resources reduce, China fishmeal production decline 47
4.2.2 Chinese fishmeal imports 1.25 million MT, reduced by 1.25% 47
4.2.3 Imported fishmeal concentration is high, increased imports from Peru 48
4.2.3 Owing to a Drop in Livestock/Poultry Stocks, Fish Meal Demand Reduced 48
4.2.4 Along with a Slow Recovery of Aquaculture, 2016 Fish Meal Demand will Increase Steadily 49
4.3 MBM Market Analysis and Forecast 50
4.3.1 Domestic production decreased, 45% year-on-year increase imported meat and bone meal 50
4.3.2 Main Original Countries of Chinas Meat and Bone Meal Import: Uruguay and Australia 50
4.3.3 A Fall in Fish Meal Price Impacted the Price of Meat and Bone Meal 51
4.4 Chinese Animal Protein Supply and Demand Balance Analysis and Forecast 52
Chapter 5: Feed Additives Market Analysis and Forecast 53
5.1 Vitamin Market Analysis and Forecast 53
5.1.1 Owing to an Overcapacity, Vitamin was in an Oversupply 53
5.1.2 Vitamin A Chinese exports grew by 4.5%, the export price fell 16.7% 53
5.1.3 Vitamin A number of imports fell by 10%, import price down 20% 54
5.1.4 Along with an Oversupply and a Downturn of Downstream Consumption, Vitamin Price Lowered 54
5.1.5 Thanks to production suspension and de-stocking, vitamin price will ascend 55
5.2 Lysine Market Analysis and Forecast 56
5.2.1 Due to an Overcapacity, Lysine Price Kept Decreasing 56
5.2.2 Lysine export prices declined slightly, a substantial increase lysine export 56
5.2.3 Lysine salts and esters export increased slightly 57
5.3 Methionine Market Analysis and Forecast 58
5.3.1 Due to the Depression of Breeding, Lysine Import Dropped 58
5.3.2 Methionine import volume increased 26 thousand and 600 tons, the import price of an increase of 15.3% 58
5.3.3 The export volume of methionine increased 6 times, the export price fell 53% 59
Chapter 6: China Feed Industry Enterprise Group Analysis and Forecast 60
6.1 Main Industrial Feed Groups Production and Operation 60
6.1.1 Small and Medium-Sized Feed Companies were Poor-Performed and Large Feed Companies Still Were Expanding 60
6.2 Analysis on Large Feed Enterprise Groups 60
6.2.1 Dabeinong Group 60
6.2.2 Tangrenshen Group 62
6.2.3 Haid Group 62
6.2.4 Zhengbang Group 63
6.2.5 Twins Group 64
6.2.6 New Hope Liuhe 64
6.2.7 CP Group 65
6.2.8 Wellhope Group 66
6.2.9 Ningbo Tech-Bank 66
6.2.10 Asia-Pacific Zhonghui 67
6.3 Developmental Forecasts on Feed Companies 67
Attached Figure 69
Attached Figure 2: The spot price of corn in selling area 2012-2015 69
Attached Figure 3: The port spot price of corn 2012-2015 70
Attached Figure 4: The spot price of corn protein powder 2012-2015 70
Attached Figure 5: The spot price of corn germ meal 2012-2015 71
Attached Figure 6: DDGS spot price 2012-2015 71
Attached Figure 7: Lysine spot price 2012-2015 72
Attached Figure 8: The northern port to the southern port of corn trade profit 2011-2015 72
Attached Figure 9: Corn imports profit 2011-2015 73
Attached Figure 10: The trend of hog herds 2011-2015 73
Attached Figure 11: Breeding sows livestock 2011-2015 74
Attached Figure 12: The amount of pig slaughtering sentinel enterprises 2008-2015 74
Attached Figure 13: The amount of grain imports 2011-2015 75
Attached Figure 14: The spot price of soybean meal 2013-2015 75
Attached Figure 15 :The spot price of Rapseed meal 2013-2015 76
Attached Figure 16: The spot price of cottonseed meal 2013-2015 76
Attached Figure 17: The spot price of fish meal 2013-2015 77
Attached Figure 18: Lysine spot price 2013-2015 77
Attached Figure 19: Vitamin A spot price 2013-2015 78
Attached Figure 20: The spot price of calcium 2013-2015 78
Attached Figure 21: China Corn Imports By Country 2015 79
Attached Figure 22: China Soybean Import By Country 2015 79
Attached Figure 23: China Rapseed Import By Country 2015 80
Attached Figure 23: Landed cost of imported soybeans 2008-2015 80
Attached Figure 24: World corn production and trade 81
Attached Figure 25: US corn production and yields 2001-2015 81
Attached Figure 26: World soybean production and trade 82
Attached Figure 27: US soybean production and exports 2001-2015 82
Attached Figure 28: Imports of soybean stocks 83
Attached Figure 29: Imported soybean crush margins 2008-2015 83
Attached Figure 30: Temporary storage of corn auction volume and average transaction price 84
Attached Figure 31: Inter-provincial transfer library auction volume and average transaction price of corn 84
Attached Table 85
Attached Table 1: China major grain imports 2015 85
Attached Table 2: Corn import by country 2015 85
Attached Table 3: Corn export by country 2015 86
Attached Table 4: Corn import by enterprise 2015 86
Attached Table 5: Soybean meal import by country 2015 88
Attached Table 6: Soybean meal export by country 2015 88
Attached Table 7: Soybean meal export by enterprise 2015 89
Attached Table 8: Rapseed meal export by country 2015 91
Attached Table 9: Rapseed meal import by country 2015 91
Attached Table 10 : Cottonseed meal export by country 2015 91
Attached Table 11 : Barley import by country 2015 92
Attached Table 12 : Barley import by enterprise 2015 92
Attached Table 13 : Sorghum import by country 2015 94
Attached Table 14: Sorghum import by enterprise 2015 94
Attached Table 15: DDGS import by country 2015 96
Attached Table 16: DDGS import by enterprise 2015 96
Attached Table 17: Fish meal import by country 2015 98
Attached Table 18: Fish meal import by enterprise 2015 98
Attached Table 19: MBM-cattle and sheep ingredients import by country 2015 100
Attached Table 20: MBM-free cattle and sheep ingredients import by country 2015 100
Attached Table 21: Whey powder import by enterprise 2015 101
Attached Table 22: Lysine export by enterprise 2015 102
Attached Table 23: Methionine import by enterprise 2015 103

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