Childrenswear Retailing in the UK | Verdict Sector Report; Market size, strategic issues and competitive outlook

Childrenswear Retailing in the UK | Verdict Sector Report; Market size, strategic issues and competitive outlook

Code: VR-VR00113SR | Published: Jan-2016 | Pages: 111 | Verdict Retail
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The childrenswear market is set to grow by 2.8% in 2015; the same level of growth achieved in 2014, and only very
gradual. The composition of growth is now very different from 10 years ago, when very rapid price deflation of 4.0% drove a 7.5% rise in volume. Inflation is easing, at just 0.1% in 2015 following a period of rising sourcing costs, ensuring that growth is now becoming more organic, with volume growth of 2.7% forecast for 2015. However, while value growth in the childrenswear market has recovered to pre-recession levels, volume growth has not as parents continue to purchase more carefully - a shift we saw throughout the downturn, which we expect to see maintained.

Key Findings
- The tween and young teen markets represent the biggest opportunity in the UK childrenswear sector for retailers to exploit over the next five years, given they are the fastest growing childrens population segments to 2020 and yet there is currently little competition specifically targeting this audience. Retailers must concentrate on tailored ranges, appropriately interpreted fashion trends and focused marketing and social media initiatives in order to take advantage

- Over 50% of school uniform shoppers are prepared to spend more on school uniform items if they are designed with technical attributes such as easy iron, scuff resistant (shoes), adjustable waists and stain-resistant fabric. As a standard offer, most retailers now provide permanent pleating and Teflon coating to prevent stains, but more premium features such as non-iron and scuff resistant coating on shoes would allow them to have a more tiered price architecture - encouraging trading up and higher spend per head.

- Despite the largest proportion of childrenswear retailers being positioned in the midmarket, such as Gap Kids, MandS and Next, there is considerable polarisation in the market, with retailers in the value and premium sectors performing well, which is ultimately resulting in midmarket retailers being squeezed. The midmarket is trying to fight back with greater emphasis on value ranges such as Mother cares Value Essentials range, striving to offer shoppers lower prices but maintain quality, providing a differentiator to value retailers.

Synopsis
The UK childrenswear market 2010-2020 offers a comprehensive insight into the factors driving the market, the inhibitors, the major players performance, the main trends and consumer attitudes. It also forecasts to 2020.

It provides in-depth analysis of the following:

- The Outlook

- Recommendations

- Market Size

- Market Forecast

- Channel Shares

- Market Shares

- Trends

Reasons To Buy
- Understand which categories within childrenswear are forecast to outperform and how you can grow your share of spend in these markets.

- Gain a better understanding on consumer shopping habits for back to school clothing, which retailers are most popular and how frequently back to school products are purchased, to enable you to better compete in this lucrative market.

- Gain knowledge of the strategies for tapping into the Tween market which is due to be the fastest growing segment of childrenswear

- Identify the opportunities to grow business in this sector by comparing strategies of the key players in the market and their performance metrics

Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Key findings
Outlook
Childrenswear spending growth to reach 2.8% in 2015
Deflation set to return, boosting volumes further
Fall in the birth rate hits younger childrenswear in the short term
Value players set to gain share but their advance will slow
Back to school market highly price competitive but quality to become more important
Online childrenswear market grows by 17.1% in 2014 to reach Pound682m
Online to account for four fifths of childrenswear growth in next five years
Demographic trends set to boost the tween clothing market
Mini-me trend given further impetus by social media
Recommendations
Focus online proposition on maximising customer convenience
Cater for more leisurely online shoppers as well
Make the most of the overlap between online and offline channels
Develop quality perceptions in back to school to sidestep price rivalry
Target the demand for second hand retailing
Restructure ranges to take advantage of demographic trends toward tweens
Build spend per head in lower age bands to counteract 2013 fall in birth rates
Table of Contents
Table of Figures
List of Tables
Market Size
Market definition and analysis
Clothing market summary
Womenswear outperforms all sectors between 2010 and 2015, but this is set to change
Childrenswear in context of the clothing market
Spend on childrenswear rises Pound518m in five years to 2015
Most resilient clothing sector by volumes
Subsector performance
Market price segmentation
Market dominated by fashion-focused clothing retailers
Expenditure breakdown of childrenswear market
Spend per head
Additional Pound8.87 spent on childrenswear in 2015
Market Forecast
Childrenswear Expenditure Trends
Childrenswear to underperform all other clothing sectors
Market segmentation
Value share will grow the most over the next five years
Subsector performance
Girlswear
Boyswear
Infantswear
Spend per head
Pound35 rise in spend per head forecast
Infantswear drives spend per head
Quarterly expenditure forecasts
2014
2015
2016/17
Deflation returns in Q1 2016
Channel Shares
Clothing specialists and grocers gain ground
Childrenswear specialists remain under pressure
Slow Mother care recovery and specialists fight against the grocers and clothing players lead to further share declines
Growing offers from smaller grocers Morrisons, Aldi and Lidl support grocers share of spend
Despite gains from Amazon, the demise of mail order specialists leads to general merchandisers fall
Online and offline
Convenience will drive online across all channels
Market Shares
Childrenswear market shares
Next forecast to grow childrenswear share, maintaining lead and impacting MandS and Matalan
Primark closes in on market leader Next
Winners and losers
Matalan loses share as poor womenswear collections lead to weaker childrenswear footfall
Key operating statistics
Sainsburys drives densities via modern shop fits and attractive visual merchandising
Space versus sales growth
Sales densities
Trends
Relevant Product Essential For Teen Market Success
Population growth
Competitive landscape
Product development
Babywear
Birth rates projected to rise in five years to 2020
Average age of mothers is increasing, boosting spend per head
Broad choice and a price-competitive offer ensure grocers remain popular among parents
Specialists must find a point of differentiation to regain lost ground
Midmarket womenswear players foray into babywear
Midmarket players must capitalise on gifting to drive spend
School Uniform Shopping Habits
While competitive prices are crucial, quality is more important
Consumer willingness to pay more for technical design features bodes well for retailers
Non-traditional players tap into school uniform market
Online now a major channel for uniform shopping
Shopper profile
Shopper spend
Online share of spend
Shopper frequency
Drivers of spend
Valued technical attributes in school uniform
Retailers visited
Items purchased
Retailer shares of items purchased
Items purchased by retailer
Top July findings
Top August findings
Top September findings
Online Growth To Add Nearly Pound100m To Market In 2014
Pace of growth slows but is still rapid
Value segment still lags behind midmarket and premium sectors
Childrenswear online does not appeal as much as womenswear and menswear
ABC1s dominate socioeconomic profile of online childrenswear shoppers
Women and 25-44s are the main purchasers
Drivers of Spend
Price still important in buying online
Online sales channels
Nearly half spend under 30 minutes browsing before buying
Appendix
Methodology
Childrenswear market size and forecast methodology
Childrenswear retailer market share methodology
Clothing sales density methodology
Childrenswear spend per head methodology
Disclaimer

List of Tables


Table 1: Childrenswear market definition, 2015
Table 2: Summary of clothing sectors, 2015e
Table 3: Childrenswear market value (Poundm) and growth drivers (%), 2005-15e
Table 4: Childrenswear sales breakdown and trends in context of clothing (Poundm), 2005-15e
Table 5: Girlswear expenditure, inflation, volume and value and share of sector, 2015e-20e
Table 6: Boyswear expenditure, inflation, volume and value and share of sector, 2015e-20e
Table 7: Infantswear expenditure, inflation, volume and value and share of sector, 2015e-20e
Table 8: Childrenswear expenditure (Poundm) and growth (%), quarterly, 2013-17e
Table 9: Childrenswear channels of distribution expenditure (Poundm) and share (%), 2014, 2015e and 2020e
Table 10: Specialist and clothing specialist childrenswear market shares (%), 2010-15e
Table 11: Non-specialist childrenswear market shares (%), 2010-15e
Table 12: Childrenswear retailers key UK operating statistics, 2014/15e and 2015/16e
Table 13: Purchased items at the leading school uniform retailers (%), 2015

List of Figures


Figure 1: Sector shares of the clothing market (%), 2010 and 2015e
Figure 2: Childrenswear expenditure (Poundbn) and year-on-year change (%), 2005-15e
Figure 3: Childrenswear inflation/deflation, volume and value growth (%), 2005-15e
Figure 4: Childrenswear positioning map, 2014
Figure 5: Mother care Value Essentials range, July 2014
Figure 6: River Island childrenswear edit, July 2014
Figure 7: Childrenswear expenditure breakdown (%), 2009 and 2014e
Figure 8: Tesco TV childrenswear advert emphasizing added value features, 2014
Figure 9: Childrenswear spend per head (Pound), 2010-15e
Figure 10: Spend per head in childrenswear, girlswear, boyswear and infantswear (Pound), 2005 and 2015e
Figure 11: Childrenswear expenditure (Poundbn) and year-on-year change (%), 2010-20e
Figure 12: Childrenswear sources of growth (%), 2010-20e
Figure 13: Childrenswear expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e
Figure 14: Childrenswear expenditure breakdown (%), 2009, 2014e and 2019e
Figure 15: Girlswear expenditure (Poundm) and year-on-year change (%), 2010-20e
Figure 16: Girlswear sources of growth (%), 2010-20e
Figure 17: Girlswear expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e
Figure 18: Boyswear expenditure (Poundm) and year-on-year change (%), 2010-20e
Figure 19: Boyswear sources of growth (%), 2010-20e
Figure 20: Boyswear expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e
Figure 21: Infantswear expenditure (Poundm) and year-on-year change (%), 2010-20e
Figure 22: Infantswear sources of growth (%), 2010-20e
Figure 23: Infantswear expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e
Figure 24: Births in Great Britain, numbers and year-on-year change (%), 2003-13
Figure 25: Childrenswear spend per head (Pound), 2015e-20e
Figure 26: Spend per head on total childrenswear, girlswear, boyswear, infantswear (Pound), 2015e and 2020e
Figure 27: Childrenswear sources of growth (%), quarterly, 2013-17e
Figure 28: Childrenswear versus clothing and footwear year-on-year change (%), quarterly, 2013-17e
Figure 29: Childrenswear channel shares (%), 2014, 2015e and 2020e
Figure 30: Childrenswear channel expenditure growth (%), 2020e on 2015e
Figure 31: Change in childrenswear channel share (percentage point), 2015-20e
Figure 32: Online and offline shares of childrenswear (%), 2014, 2015e and 2020e
Figure 33: Childrenswear top 15 - childrenswear market shares (%), 2010 and 2015e
Figure 34: Childrenswear top 15 - childrenswear winners and losers (percentage points), 2015e on 2014
Figure 35: Childrenswear retailers UK space growth versus sales growth (%), 2015/16e
Figure 36: Clothing sales densities (Pound/sq ft), 2014/15 and 2015/16e
Figure 37: Change in numbers of children by age group (%), 2015-20
Figure 38: Positioning map of retailers targeting teens, 2015
Figure 39: Current teen influencers sense of style is more aligned with adult fashion, 2015
Figure 40: Topshop dresses available in a size 4, December 2015
Figure 41: River Island Girls range, December 2015
Figure 42: Babalunos nautical inspired collection at Tesco, 2015
Figure 43: Mother cares baby advice forum, 2015
Figure 44: Zaras trendy displays with outfit suggestions and stylised photo shoots, 2015
Figure 45: John Lewiss Christmas babywear range, 2015
Figure 46: MandS boys school shirts, 2015
Figure 47: Profile of school uniform shoppers by gender and age group (%), 2015
Figure 48: School uniform shoppers who bought uniform for a particular age group (%), 2015
Figure 49: Shopper spend on school uniform (%), 2015
Figure 50: Online share of school uniform expenditure (%), 2015
Figure 51: Frequency of shopping trips for school uniform purchases (%), 2015
Figure 52: Importance of drivers when choosing where to purchase school uniform (%), 2015
Figure 53: Important technical attributes in school uniform (%), 2015
Figure 54: Most shopped school uniform retailers (%), 2015
Figure 55: Top 10 most shopped school uniform retailers by gender (%), 2015
Figure 56: Top five most shopped school uniform retailers by age group (%), 2015
Figure 57: Purchased school uniform items (%), 2015
Figure 58: School uniform items purchased at Asda (%), 2015
Figure 59: School uniform items purchased at Bhs (%), 2015
Figure 60: School uniform items purchased at Clarks (%), 2015
Figure 61: School uniform items purchased at MandS (%), 2015
Figure 62: School uniform items purchased at Matalan (%), 2015
Figure 63: School uniform items purchased at Next (%), 2015
Figure 64: School uniform items purchased at Primark (%), 2015
Figure 65: School uniform items purchased at Sainsburys (%), 2015
Figure 66: School uniform items purchased at Tesco (%), 2015
Figure 67: Online childrenswear expenditure (Poundm) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-15e
Figure 68: Socioeconomic profile of online childrenswear shoppers (%), 2014
Figure 69: Penetration of online clothing shoppers for childrenswear by gender, age and socioeconomic group (%), 2014
Figure 70: Age profile of online childrenswear shoppers (%), 2014
Figure 71: Main drivers of childrenswear online spend (%), 2014
Figure 72: Delivery methods used by online childrenswear buyers (%), 2014
Figure 73: Browsing time before purchasing childrenswear online (%), 2014
Figure 74: Devices used when buying childrenswear online (%), 2014
Figure 75: Online childrenswear expenditure (Poundm) and year-on-year growth (%), 2015-20e

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