Future of the Georgian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020

Future of the Georgian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020

Code: SDI-DF0331MR | Published: Aug-2015 | Pages: 98 | Strategic Defence Intelligence
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The Georgian defense market will be driven by the need to fulfill interoperability requirements with NATO, the modernization of its armed forces and upgrading military hardware, and the threats posed by Russia. In addition, the capital expenditure allocation is anticipated to average 12% of the total defense budget during 2016-2020 and defense equipment procurement is expected to be in the areas of military helicopters, armored vehicles, fighter aircraft and missile defense systems, and anti-tank and anti-aircraft capabilities.

Key Findings
- During 2011-2015, Georgian defense expenditure registered growth of -8.73%, declining from US$422 million in 2011 to US$292.8 million in 2015

- Military expenditure is anticipated to register a CAGR of 2.31% during 2016-2020, to value US$326.7 million in 2020

- The need to fulfill interoperability requirements with NATO, the modernization of the armed forces and upgrading military hardware, and the threats posed by Russia are expected to drive defense expenditure over the forecast period

- Demand for equipment is mainly expected to revolve around military helicopters, armored vehicles, fighter aircraft and missile defense systems, and anti-tank and anti-aircraft capabilities during 2016-2020

Synopsis
Strategic Defense Intelligences report - Future of the Georgian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020 offers detailed analysis of the industry with market size forecasts for the period 2016-2020. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand in the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants is covered.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following:

- Defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the defense industry during 2016-2020, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators. It also provides a snapshot of the countrys expenditure and modernization patterns

- Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to the army, navy, and air force. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country

- Porters Five Force analysis of the defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry

- Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the countrys imports and exports over the last five years

- Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities from 2015 to 2025

- Competitive landscape and strategic insights: including an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis

Reasons To Buy
- Identify and track global defense market and make regional comparisons to effectively target new revenue streams

- Understand the importance of being led by the defense ministries in the military procurement market and define your strategies with insight on what your customers really want by analyzing recent orders, technical specifications and the countrys expected investment pattern during 2016-2020

- Make correct business decisions based on detailed analysis of the defense industry from 2016-2020 which includes the total competitive landscape of the sector with detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers along with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins and financial analysis

- Determine prospective investment areas by gaining an in-depth understanding of the industry in terms of market opportunities

- Channelize resources by identifying various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues across different sectors during 2016-2020

Table of Contents

1 Introduction
1.1 What is this Report About?
1.2 Definitions
1.3 Summary Methodology
1.4 SDI Terrorism Index
1.5 About Strategic Defence Intelligence
2 Executive Summary
3 Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
3.1 Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
3.1.1 Georgian annual defense expenditure to reach US$326.7 million by 2020
3.1.2 NATO membership, threats posed by Russia, and counter-terrorism and modernization plans drive defense expenditure
3.1.3 Defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP expected to decline during 2016-2020
3.1.4 Per-capita defense expenditure expected to increase over the forecast period
3.2 Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
3.2.1 Capital expenditure allocation expected to increase during the forecast period
3.2.2 Capital expenditure budget expected to grow during the forecast period
3.2.3 MoD to spend US$1.4 billion on revenue expenditure during 2016-2020
3.3 Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.3.1 Homeland security market expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.86% during the forecast period
3.3.2 Human trafficking, drug trafficking, and internal disputes to drive homeland security expenditure
3.3.3 Georgia falls under "some risk" of terrorism
3.3.4 Georgia has terrorism index score of 0.2
3.3.5 Georgia faces moderate risk of terrorist attack
3.4 Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.4.1 Georgias defense budget to increase at a CAGR of 2.31% during the forecast period
3.4.2 Georgias defense budget is very small compared to top spenders in the global defense market
3.4.3 Georgia allocates a higher share of its GDP to defense than NATO requires
3.5 Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
3.5.1 Military Helicopters will witness a surge in demand
3.5.2 Demand for armored vehicles expected to increase
3.5.3 Demand for fighter aircraft and missile defense systems expected to increase
3.5.4 Anti-tank and anti-aircraft capabilities expected to be in demand
4 Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
4.1 Import Market Dynamics
4.1.1 Defense imports anticipated to decline during the forecast period
4.1.2 Bulgaria dominates arms imports to Georgia
4.1.3 Armored vehicles and artillery were the only imports during 2010-2014
4.2 Export Market Dynamics
4.2.1 Georgia does not export arms due to an undeveloped domestic arms industry
5 Industry Dynamics
5.1 Five Forces Analysis
5.1.1 Bargaining power of supplier: high
5.1.2 Bargaining power of buyer: low
5.1.3 Barriers to entry: high
5.1.4 Intensity of rivalry: low
5.1.5 Threat of substitution: low
6 Market Entry Strategy
6.1 Market Regulation
6.1.1 Georgia does not disclose any offset obligations imposed by the country
6.1.2 FDI in the defense sector is permitted only after review by the government
6.2 Market Entry Route
6.2.1 Foreign military sales (FMS) and direct commercial sales (DCS) preferred market entry routes
6.2.2 Establishment of subsidiaries provides an alternative entry route
6.3 Key Challenges
6.3.1 Proposed arms embargo against Georgia makes it difficult for defense companies
6.3.2 Small defense budget does not attract investors and suppliers
7 Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
7.1 Competitive Landscape Overview
7.2 Key Public Sectors Companies
7.2.1 Tbilisi Aircraft Manufacturing: overview
7.2.2 Tbilisi Aircraft Manufacturing - Major Products and Services
7.2.3 Tbilisi Aircraft Manufacturing: recent contracts and strategic initiatives
7.2.4 Tbilisi Aircraft Manufacturing - Alliances
8 Business Environment and Country Risk
8.1 Demographics and Social Statistics
8.1.1 Total Rural Population
8.1.2 Total Urban Population
8.1.3 Number of households
8.2 Economic Performance
8.2.1 GDP Per Capita
8.2.2 GDP, Current Prices
8.2.3 Consumer Price Index
8.2.4 Wholesale Price Index
8.2.5 Local Currency Unit per Euro
8.2.6 Market Capitalization of Listed Companies
8.2.7 Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP)
8.2.8 Government Cash Surplus/Deficit
8.2.9 Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as % of GDP
8.2.10 Central Government Debt
8.2.11 Central Government Debt as % of GDP
8.2.12 Goods exports as % of GDP
8.2.13 Goods imports as % of GDP
8.2.14 Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit as % of GDP
8.2.15 Service Imports as % of GDP
8.2.16 Service Exports as % of GDP
8.2.17 Service Trade Surplus/Deficit as % of GDP
8.2.18 Foreign Direct Investment
8.2.19 Net foreign direct investment as % of GDP
8.2.20 International reserves, including gold
8.3 Energy and Utilities
8.3.1 Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation
8.3.2 Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity
8.3.3 Electricity Exports
8.3.4 Electricity Imports
8.3.5 Petroleum Consumption
8.4 Infrastructure
8.4.1 Rail Lines
8.4.2 Air transport, freight
8.5 Minerals
8.5.1 Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output
8.6 Technology
8.6.1 Patents Granted
8.7 Telecommunication
8.7.1 Telephone Lines
8.7.2 Telephone Lines Penetration Rate
8.8 Technology
8.8.1 Fixed Broadband Internet Subscribers
9 Appendix
9.1 About SDI
9.2 Disclaimer

List of Tables


Table 1: Georgian Defense Expenditure (US$ Million), 2011-2015
Table 2: Georgian Defense Expenditure (US$ Million), 2016-2020
Table 3: Georgian Defense Expenditure (GEL Million), 2011-2015
Table 4: Georgian Defense Expenditure (GEL Million), 2016-2020
Table 5: Georgian GDP Growth versus Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2011-2015
Table 6: Georgian GDP Growth versus Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2016-2020
Table 7: Georgian Per-Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2011-2015
Table 8: Georgian Per-Capita Defense Expenditure, 2016-2020
Table 9: Georgian Defense Budget Split between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2011-2015
Table 10: Georgian Defense Budget Split between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2016-2020
Table 11: Georgian Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Million), 2011-2015
Table 12: Georgian Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Million), 2016-2020
Table 13: Georgian Defense Capital Expenditure (GEL Million), 2011-2015
Table 14: Georgian Defense Capital Expenditure (GEL Million), 2016-2020
Table 15: Georgian Defense Revenue Expenditure (US$ Million), 2011-2015
Table 16: Georgian Defense Revenue Expenditure (US$ Million), 2016-2020
Table 17: Georgian Defense Revenue Expenditure (GEL Million), 2011-2015
Table 18: Georgian Defense Revenue Expenditure (GEL Million), 2016-2020
Table 19: Georgian Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Million), 2011-2015
Table 20: Georgian Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Million), 2016-2020
Table 21: Georgian Homeland Security Expenditure (GEL Million), 2011-2015
Table 22: Georgian Homeland Security Expenditure (GEL Million), 2016-2020
Table 23: SDI Terrorism Index
Table 24: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2011-2015 vs. 2016-2020
Table 25: Tbilisi Aircraft Manufacturing- Product Focus
Table 26: Tbilisi Aircraft Manufacturing - Alliances

List of Figures


Figure 1: Georgian Defense Expenditure (US$ Million), 2011-2015
Figure 2: Georgian Defense Expenditure (US$ Million), 2016-2020
Figure 3: Georgian Defense Expenditure (GEL Million), 2011-2015
Figure 4: Georgian Defense Expenditure (GEL Million), 2016-2020
Figure 5: Georgian GDP Growth versus Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2011-2015
Figure 6: Georgian GDP Growth versus Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2016-2020
Figure 7: Georgian Per-Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2011-2015
Figure 8: Georgian Per-Capita Defense Expenditure, 2016-2020
Figure 9: Georgian Defense Budget Split between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2011-2015
Figure 10: Georgian Defense Budget Split between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2016-2020
Figure 11: Georgian Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Million), 2011-2015
Figure 12: Georgian Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Million), 2016-2020
Figure 13: Georgian Defense Capital Expenditure (GEL Million), 2011-2015
Figure 14: Georgian Defense Capital Expenditure (GEL Million), 2016-2020
Figure 15: Georgian Defense Revenue Expenditure (US$ Million), 2011-2015
Figure 16: Georgian Defense Revenue Expenditure (US$ Million), 2016-2020
Figure 17: Georgian Defense Revenue Expenditure (GEL Million), 2011-2015
Figure 18: Georgian Defense Revenue Expenditure (GEL Million), 2016-2020
Figure 19: Georgian Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Million), 2011-2015
Figure 20: Georgian Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Million), 2016-2020
Figure 21: Georgian Homeland Security Expenditure (GEL Million), 2011-2015
Figure 22: Georgian Homeland Security Expenditure (GEL Million), 2016-2020
Figure 23: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, 2015
Figure 24: SDI Terrorism Index, 2015
Figure 25: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2011-2015 vs. 2016-2020
Figure 26: Defense Expenditure of the Worlds Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2015 and 2020
Figure 27: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2015
Figure 28: Georgian Defense Import Trend, 2010-2014 (TIV values)
Figure 29: Georgian Defense Imports by Country (%), 2010-2014
Figure 30: Georgian Defense Imports by Category (%), 2010-2014
Figure 31: Industry Dynamics - Porters Five Forces Analysis
Figure 32: Georgian Rural Population (In Millions), 2015-2024
Figure 33: Georgian Urban Population (In Millions), 2015-2024
Figure 34: Georgian Number of Households (In Millions), 2008-2017
Figure 35: Local Currency per Euro, 2015-2024
Figure 36: Georgian Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as % of GDP, 2002-2011
Figure 37: Georgian Central Government Debt (LCU Bn), 2002-2011
Figure 38: Georgian Central Government Debt as % of GDP, 2002-2011
Figure 39: Georgian Goods Exports as % of GDP, 2002-2011
Figure 40: Georgian Goods Imports as % of GDP, 2002-2011
Figure 41: Georgian Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit as % of GDP, 2002-2011
Figure 42: Georgian Service Imports as % of GDP, 2002-2011
Figure 43: Georgian Service Exports as % of GDP, 2002-2011
Figure 44: Georgian Service Trade Surplus/Deficit as % of GDP, 2002-2011
Figure 45: Georgia Foreign Direct Investment (US$ Billion), 2002-2011
Figure 46: Georgian Net foreign direct investment as % of GDP, 2002-2011
Figure 47: Georgian International reserves, including gold (US$ Billion), 2002-2011
Figure 48: Georgian Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2002-2011
Figure 49: Georgian Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Million Kilowatts), 2001-2010
Figure 50: Georgian Electricity Exports (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2003-2012
Figure 51: Georgian Electricity Imports (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2003-2012
Figure 52: Georgian Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels Per Day), 2003-2012
Figure 53: Georgian Rail Lines (kms), 2002-2011
Figure 54: Georgian Air transport freight (million ton-km), 2002-2011
Figure 55: Georgian Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ Billion), 2002-2011
Figure 56: Georgian Patents Granted, 2003-2012
Figure 57: Georgian Telephone Lines (In Million), 2003-2012
Figure 58: Georgian Telephone Lines Penetration Rate (Per 100 People), 2003-201
Figure 59: Georgian Fixed Broadband Internet Subscribers (Thousands), 2003-2012
Tbilisi Aircraft Manufacturing

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