Future of the Kazakh Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2021

Future of the Kazakh Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2021

Code: SDI-DF0351MR | Published: Feb-2016 | Pages: 114 | Strategic Defence Intelligence
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The Kazakh defense market will be driven by anarms race in the region with focus on modernizing its military by procuring advanced defense systems and growing threats from domestic terrorism. In addition, the capital expenditure allocation is anticipated to average 35.5% of the total defense budget during 2017-2021 and defense equipment procurements are expected to be in the areas of military rotorcraft, air defense systems, and military transport aircraft.

Key Findings
- During 2012-2016, Kazakh defense expenditure registered a growth rate of -1.01%, declining from US$1.8 billion in 2012 to US$1.73 billion in 2016

- Military expenditure is anticipated to register a CAGR of 8.76% during 2017-2021, to value US$2.08 billion in 2021

- Corruption, lack of transparency, and domination of Russian companies impose challenges for the Kazakh defense market

- Demand for equipment is mainly expected to revolve around helicopters, air defense systems, and military transport aircraft during 2017-2021

Synopsis
Strategic Defence Intelligences report - Future of the Kazakh Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2021 offers detailed analysis of the industry with market size forecasts from 2017-2021. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand in the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following:

- Defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the defense industry during 2017-2021, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators. It also provides a snapshot of the countrys expenditure and modernization patterns

- Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to the army, navy, and air force. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country

- Porters Five Force analysis of the defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry

- Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the countrys imports and exports over the last five years

- Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities from 2016 to 2026

- Competitive landscape and strategic insights: including an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis

Reasons To Buy
- Identify and track the global defense market and make regional comparisons to effectively target new revenue streams

- Understand the importance of being led by the defense ministries in the military procurement market and define your strategies with insight on what your customers really want by analyzing recent orders, technical specifications, and the countrys expected investment pattern during 2017-2021

- Make correct business decisions based on detailed analysis of the defense industry from 2017-2021, which includes the total competitive landscape of the sector with detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers along with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis

- Determine prospective investment areas by gaining an in-depth understanding of the industry in terms of market opportunities

- Channel resources by identifying various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues across different sectors during 2017-2021

Table of Contents

1 Introduction
1.1. What is this Report About?
1.2. Definitions
1.3. Summary Methodology
1.4. SDI Terrorism Index
1.5. About Strategic Defence Intelligence
2 Executive Summary
3 Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
3.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
3.1.1. Kazakh annual defense expenditure to reach US$2.1 billion by 2021
3.1.2. Modernization and acquisition of military equipment and counter-terrorism to drive Kazakhstans defense expenditure
3.1.3. The countrys defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to be 0.71% on average over the forecast period
3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
3.2.1. Share of capital expenditure to increase considerably over the forecast period
3.2.2. Capital expenditure budget expected to increase during the forecast period
3.2.3. Kazakh revenue expenditure expected to record a CAGR of 8.43% during the forecast period
3.2.4. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase during the forecast period
3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.3.1. Homeland security budget projected to increase at a CAGR of 10.77% during the forecast period
3.3.2. Human trafficking, drug smuggling, and cybercrime form the major components of homeland security expenditure
3.3.3. Kazakhstan is at a low risk from external and internal threats
3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.4.1. Kazakh defense expenditure expected to increase at a CAGR of 8.76% over the forecast period
3.4.2. Kazakhstans military expenditure is low when compared to countries with the largest defense expenditure
3.4.3. Kazakhstan allocates a low percentage of GDP to defense
3.4.4. Kazakhstan faces low risk of terrorist attack
3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
3.5.1. Helicopters
3.5.2. Air defense system
3.5.3. Military Transport Aircraft
4 Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
4.1. Import Market Dynamics
4.1.1. The current need to modernize its armed forces will drive defense imports
4.1.2. Russia was the leading supplier of arms to Kazakhstan during the historic period; a trend that is expected to carry on during the forecast period
4.1.3. Aircraft accounted for the majority of defense imports during 2010-2014
4.2. Export Market Dynamics
4.2.1. Kazakhstan does not export arms due to its under-developed domestic arms industry
5 Industry Dynamics
5.1. Five Forces Analysis
5.1.1. Bargaining power of the supplier: medium to high
5.1.2. Bargaining power of the buyer: low to medium
5.1.3. Barrier to entry: medium
5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: medium
5.1.5. Threat of substitution: low to medium
6 Market Entry Strategy
6.1. Market Regulation
6.1.1. Kazakhstan does not disclose any offset obligations imposed by the country
6.1.2. Foreign direct investment (FDI)in defense sector not disclosed by the government
6.2. Market Entry Route
6.2.1. Government-to-government agreements are the preferred market entry route for foreign OEMs
6.2.2. Joint venture and license manufacturing agreements provide an attractive market entry route
6.3. Key Challenges
6.3.1. Corruption and lack of transparency create roadblock for foreign companies
6.3.2. Domination of Russian companies poses a challenge to other foreign firms
7 Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
7.1.1. Foreign suppliers manufacture defense systems overseas and deliver to Kazakhstan
7.2. Key Companies
7.2.1. Airbus: overview
7.2.2. Airbus: products and services
7.2.3. Airbus: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.4. Airbus: alliances
7.2.5. Airbus: Recent Contract Wins
7.2.6. Russian Aircraft Corporation "MiG": Overview
7.2.7. Russian Aircraft Corporation "MiG": products and services
7.2.8. Russian Aircraft Corporation "MiG": Recent contract wins
7.2.9. Uralvagonzavod - overview
7.2.10. Uralvagonzavod - major products and services
7.2.11. Uralvagonzavod - Alliances
7.2.12. Sagem: overview
7.2.13. Sagem: products and services
7.2.14. Sagem: Alliances
7.2.15. Astrium: overview
7.2.16. Astrium: products and services
7.2.17. Astrium: Alliances
7.2.18. Thales: Overview
7.2.19. Thales: products and services
7.2.20. Thales: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.21. Thales: alliances
7.2.22. Thales: Recent Contract Wins
8 Business Environment and Country Risk
8.1. Demographics and Social Statistics
8.1.1. Total Rural Population
8.1.2. Total Urban Population
8.1.3. Number of households
8.2. Economic Performance
8.2.1. GDP Per Capita
8.2.2. GDP, Current Prices
8.2.3. Exports of goods and services (current US$ Bn)
8.2.4. Imports of goods and services (current US$ Bn)
8.2.5. Gross National disposable income (US$ Bn)
8.2.6. Manufacturing Output (US$ Bn)
8.2.7. Consumer Price Index
8.2.8. Wholesale Price Index
8.2.9. Local Currency Unit per US Dollars
8.2.10. Local Currency Unit per Euro
8.2.11. Market capitalization of listed companies (US$ Bn)
8.2.12. Market capitalization of listed companies (% of GDP)
8.2.13. Total Government cash surplus/deficit (KZT Bn)
8.2.14. Government cash surplus/deficit as % of GDP (KZT)
8.2.15. Goods exports as a % of GDP
8.2.16. Goods imports as a % of GDP
8.2.17. Goods balance as a % of GDP
8.2.18. Services imports as a % of GDP
8.2.19. Service exports as a % of GDP
8.2.20. Services balance as a % of GDP
8.2.21. Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current US$ Bn)
8.2.22. Net foreign direct investment as % of GDP
8.2.23. International reserves, including gold
8.2.24. External Debt as % of GDP
8.3. Energy and Utilities
8.3.1. Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation
8.3.2. Hydroelectricity Net Generation
8.3.3. Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity
8.3.4. Electricity Exports
8.3.5. Electricity Imports
8.3.6. Proved Natural Gas Reserves
8.3.7. Petroleum Consumption
8.3.8. Crude Oil Proved Reserves
8.4. Infrastructure
8.4.1. Roads, total network (km)
8.4.2. Rail lines (total route-km)
8.4.3. Air Transport, freight (million ton-km)
8.5. Minerals
8.5.1. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output
8.6. Technology
8.6.1. Research and Development expenditure (Local Currency Thousands)
8.7. Telecommunication
8.7.1. Telephone Lines
8.7.2. Telephone Lines Penetration Rate
9 Appendix
9.1. About SDI
9.2. Disclaimer

List of Tables


Table 1: Kazakh Defense Expenditure (US$ billion), 2012-2016
Table 2: Kazakh Defense Expenditure (US$ billion), 2017-2021
Table 3: Kazakh Defense Expenditure (KZT billion), 2012-2016
Table 4: Kazakh Defense Expenditure (KZT billion), 2017-2021
Table 5: Kazakh GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth (US$), 2012-2016
Table 6: Kazakh GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth (US$), 2017-2021
Table 7: Kazakh GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth (in KZT), 2012-2016
Table 8: Kazakh GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth (KZT), 2017-2021
Table 9: Kazakh Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2012-2016
Table 10: Kazakh Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2017-2021
Table 11: Kazakh Capital Budget Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2012-2016
Table 12: Kazakh Capital Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2017-2021
Table 13: Kazakh Capital Budget Expenditure (KZT Billion), 2012-2016
Table 14: Kazakh Capital Budget Allocation (KZT billion), 2017-2021
Table 15: Kazakh Revenue Expenditure (US$ billion), 2012-2016
Table 16: Kazakh Revenue Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2017-2021
Table 17: Kazakh Revenue Budget Expenditure (KZT Billion), 2012-2016
Table 18: Kazakh Revenue Budget Allocation (KZT billion), 2017-2021
Table 19: Kazakh Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2012-2016
Table 20: Kazakh Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2017-2021
Table 21: Kazakh Homeland Security Budget (US$ bn), 2012-2016
Table 22: Kazakh Homeland Security Budget (US$ bn), 2017-2021
Table 23: Kazakh Homeland Security Budget (KZT bn), 2012-2016
Table 24: Kazakh Homeland Security Budget (KZT bn), 2017-2021
Table 25: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2012-2016 vs. 2017-2021
Table 26: SDI Terrorism Index
Table 27: Airbus - Product Focus
Table 28: Airbus: Alliances
Table 29: Airbus: Recent Contract Wins
Table 30: Russian Aircraft Corporation "MiG"- Product Focus
Table 31: Russian Aircraft Corporation "MiG" - Recent Contract Wins
Table 32: Uralvagonzavod - Major Products and Services
Table 33: Uralvagonzavod - Alliances
Table 34: Sagem- product focus
Table 35: Sagem: Alliances
Table 36: Astrium- Product Focus
Table 37: Astrium - Alliances
Table 38: Thales - Product Focus
Table 39: Thales: Alliances
Table 40: Thales - Recent Contract Wins

List of Figures


Figure 1: Kazakh Defense Expenditure (US$ billion), 2012-2016
Figure 2: Kazakh Defense Expenditure (US$ billion), 2017-2021
Figure 3: Kazakh Defense Expenditure (KZT billion), 2012-2016
Figure 4: Kazakh Defense Expenditure (KZT billion), 2017-2021
Figure 5: Kazakh GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2012-2016
Figure 6: Kazakh GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2017-2021
Figure 7: Kazakh GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2012-2016
Figure 8: Kazakh GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2017-2021
Figure 9: Kazakh Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2012-2016
Figure 10: Kazakh Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2017-2021
Figure 11: Kazakh Capital Budget Expenditure (US$ billion), 2012-2016
Figure 12: Kazakh Capital Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2017-2021
Figure 13: Kazakh Capital Budget Expenditure (KZT billion), 2012-2016
Figure 14: Kazakh Capital Budget Allocation (KZT billion), 2017-2021
Figure 15: Kazakh Revenue Expenditure (US$ billion), 2012-2016
Figure 16: Kazakh Revenue Budget Allocation(US$ billion), 2017-2021
Figure 17: Kazakh Revenue Budget Expenditure (KZT billion), 2012-2016
Figure 18: Kazakh Revenue Budget Allocation (KZT billion), 2017-2021
Figure 19: Kazakh Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2012-2016
Figure 20: Kazakh Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2017-2021
Figure 21: Kazakh Homeland Security Budget (US$ bn), 2012-2016
Figure 22: Kazakh Homeland Security Budget (US$ bn), 2017-2021
Figure 23: Kazakh Homeland Security Budget (KZT bn), 2012-2016
Figure 24: Kazakh Homeland Security Budget (KZT bn), 2017-2021
Figure 25: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, 2016
Figure 26: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2012-2016 vs. 2017-2021
Figure 27: Defense Expenditure of the Worlds Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2016 and 2021
Figure 28: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2016
Figure 29: SDI Terrorism Index, 2016
Figure 30: Kazakh Defense Import Trend(US$ million), 2010-2014 (TIV values)
Figure 31: Kazakh Defense Imports by Country (%), 2010-2014
Figure 32: Kazakh Defense Imports by Category (%), 2010-2014
Figure 33: Industry Dynamics Porters Five Forces Analysis
Figure 34: Kazakh Rural Population (In Millions), 2016-2025
Figure 35: Kazakh Urban Population (In Millions), 2016-2025
Figure 36: Kazakh Number of Households (In Millions), 2008-2017
Figure 37: Kazakh GDP Per Capita (US$), 2016-2025
Figure 38: Kazakh GDP, Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2016-2025
Figure 39: Kazakh Exports of Goods and Services (current US$ Bn), 2004-2013
Figure 40: Kazakh Imports of goods and services (current US$ Bn), 2004-2013
Figure 41: Kazakh Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Bn), 2002-2011
Figure 42: Kazakh Manufacturing Output (US$ Bn), 2003-2012
Figure 43: Kazakh Consumer Price Index, 2016-2025
Figure 44: Wholesale Price Index, 2002-2011
Figure 45: Local Currency per US$, 2016-2025
Figure 46: Local Currency per Euro, 2016-2025
Figure 47: Kazakh Market capitalization of listed companies (US$ Bn), 2003-2012
Figure 48: Kazakh Market capitalization of listed companies (% of GDP), 2003-2012
Figure 49: Kazakh Total Government cash surplus/deficit (KZT Bn), 2004-2011
Figure 50: Kazakh Government cash surplus/deficit as % of GDP (LCU), 2002-2011
Figure 51: Kazakh Goods exports as a % of GDP, 2003-2012
Figure 52: Kazakh Goods imports as a % of GDP, 2003-2012
Figure 53: Kazakh Goods balance as a % of GDP, 2003-2012
Figure 54: Kazakh Services Imports as a % of GDP, 2003-2012
Figure 55: Kazakh Service Exports as a % of GDP, 2003-2012
Figure 56: Kazakh Services Balance as a % of GDP, 2003-2012
Figure 57: Kazakh Foreign Direct Investment, net (BoP, current US$ Bn), 2005-2012
Figure 58: Kazakh Net foreign direct investment as % of GDP, 2006-2012
Figure 59: Kazakh International Reserves, Including Gold (US$ Billion), 2003-2012
Figure 60: Kazakh External Debt as % of GDP (%), 2003-2012
Figure 61: Kazakh Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2002-2011
Figure 62: Kazakh Hydroelectricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2003-2012
Figure 63: Kazakh Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Million Kilowatts), 2001-2010
Figure 64: Kazakh Electricity Exports (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2003-2012
Figure 65: Kazakh Electricity Imports (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2002-2011
Figure 66: Kazakh Proved Natural Gas Reserves (Trillion Cubic Feet), 2005-2014
Figure 67: Kazakh Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels Per Day), 2003-2012
Figure 68: Kazakh Crude Oil Proved Reserves (Billion Barrels), 2005-2014
Figure 69: Kazakh Roads, total network (km), 2003-2011
Figure 70: Kazakh Rail lines (total route-km), 2003-2012
Figure 71: Kazakh Air Transport, freight (million ton-km), 2003-2012
Figure 72: Kazakh Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ Billion), 2003-2012
Figure 73: Kazakh Research and Development expenditure (Local Currency Thousands), 2000-2009
Figure 74: Kazakh Telephone Lines (In Million), 2003-2012
Figure 75: Kazakh Telephone Lines Penetration Rate (Per 100 People), 2003-2012
Airbus
Russian Aircraft Corporation "MiG"
Uralvagonzavod
Sagem
Astrium
Thales

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