Future of the Kenyan Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020

Future of the Kenyan Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020

Code: SDI-DF0290MR | Published: Feb-2015 | Pages: 104 | Strategic Defence Intelligence
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The Future of the Kenyan Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020, published by Strategic Defence Intelligence, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

Key Findings
- Over the historic period, Kenyas defense expenditure registered a growth rate of 2.60%,increasing from US$0.9 billion in 2011 to US$1.0 billion in 2015

- The countrys total defense expenditure during the forecast period is expected to be US$2.8 billion

- The average share of capital expenditure is expected to be 17.5% over the forecast period, compared to an average share of 15.7% during 2011-2015

- Over the forecast period, the countrys budget for homeland security is expected to be US$4.1 billion cumulatively

- The key areas of investment are expected to be cyber security systems, aircraft, armored vehicles, and surveillance equipment

Synopsis
This report offers detailed analysis of the Kenyan defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.
In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following:

- Kenyan defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Kenyan defense industry during 2016-2020, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the countrys expenditure and modernization patterns

- Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to the army, navy, and air force. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country

- Porters Five Force analysis of the Kenyan defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry

- Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the countrys imports and exports over the last five years

- Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the coming 10 years

- Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Kenyan defense industry.

- It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis

Reasons To Buy
- This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Kenyan defense industry market trends for the coming five years

- The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period

- Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector

- A deep qualitative analysis of the Kenyan defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porters Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts

Table of Contents

1 Introduction
1.1. What is this Report About?
1.2. Definitions
1.3. Summary Methodology
1.4. SDI Terrorism Index
1.5. About Strategic Defence Intelligence
2 Executive Summary
3 Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
3.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
3.1.1. Kenyan annual defense expenditure expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.94% over 2016-2020
3.1.2. Border security, terrorist group threats, peacekeeping missions, and the need to modernize outdated defense equipment to drive Kenyas defense expenditure
3.1.3. The countrys defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to average 1.2% over the forecast period
3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
3.2.1. Share of revenue expenditure to comprise the majority of the defense budget
3.2.2. Capital expenditure budget projected to increase at a CAGR of 5.53% during the forecast period
3.2.3. Kenyan defense revenue expenditure expected to be US$4.8 billion cumulatively over 2016-2020
3.2.4. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase during the forecast period
3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.3.1. Homeland security budget projected to increase during the forecast period
3.3.2. Human trafficking, and drug and arms smugglings form the major components of homeland security expenditure
3.3.3. Kenya is at some risk from external and internal threats
3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.4.1. Kenyan defense expenditure expected to be low compared to other African nations
3.4.2. Kenyas military expenditure to be US$1.2 billion by 2020
3.4.3. Kenya allocates a low percentage of GDP to defense
3.4.4. Kenya faces some risk of terrorism
3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
3.5.1. Cyber security
3.5.2. Trainer aircraft
3.5.3. Armored Vehicles
3.5.4. Helicopter
4 Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
4.1. Import Market Dynamics
4.1.1. The initiative to modernize the countrys armed force will drive defense imports
4.1.2. Jordan was the leading supplier of arms to Kenya during 2010-2013
4.1.3. Aircraft accounted for the majority of defense imports during 2010-2013
4.2. Export Market Dynamics
4.2.1. Kenya does not export arms due to its under-developed domestic arms industry
5 Industry Dynamics
5.1. Five Forces Analysis
5.1.1. Bargaining power of the supplier: high
5.1.2. Bargaining power of the buyer: low
5.1.3. Barrier to entry: medium to high
5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: high
5.1.5. Threat of substitution: medium to high
6 Market Entry Strategy
6.1. Market Regulation
6.1.1. Kenya does not disclose any offset obligations imposed by the country
6.1.2. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is determined on a case to case basis
6.2. Market Entry Route
6.2.1. Equipment manufacturers enter the market through government-to-government deals
6.3. Key Challenges
6.3.1. Corruption and lack of transparency characterize the Kenyan defense industry
6.3.2. Low defense budget to act as obstacle for foreign investors
7 Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
7.1.1. Foreign suppliers manufacture defense systems overseas and deliver to Kenya
7.2. Key Domestic Companies
7.2.1. Kenya Ordnance Factories Corporation: overview
7.2.2. Kenya Ordnance Factories Corporation: products and services
7.2.3. Rosoboronexport: overview
7.2.4. Rosoboronexport: products and services
7.2.5. Rosoboronexport: recent contract wins
7.2.6. Grob Aircraft: overview
7.2.7. Grob Aircraft: products and services
7.2.8. Grob Aircraft: recent contract wins
8 Business Environment and Country Risk
8.1. Demographics and Social Statistics
8.1.1. Total Rural Population
8.1.2. Total Urban Population
8.1.3. Number of households
8.2. Economic Performance
8.2.1. GDP Per Capita
8.2.2. GDP, Current Prices
8.2.3. Exports of goods and services (current USD Bn)
8.2.4. Imports of goods and services (current USD Bn)
8.2.5. Gross National disposable income (USD Bn)
8.2.6. Manufacturing Output (USD Bn)
8.2.7. Consumer Price Index
8.2.8. Local Currency Unit per US Dollars
8.2.9. Local Currency Unit per Euro
8.2.10. Lending Rate
8.2.11. Deposit Rate
8.2.12. Real Interest Rate (%)
8.2.13. Market capitalization of listed companies (USD Bn)
8.2.14. Market capitalization of listed companies (% of GDP)
8.2.15. Total Government cash surplus/deficit (LCU Bn)
8.2.16. Government cash surplus/deficit as % of GDP (LCU)
8.2.17. Goods exports as a % of GDP
8.2.18. Goods imports as a % of GDP
8.2.19. Goods balance as a % of GDP
8.2.20. Services imports as a % of GDP
8.2.21. Service exports as a % of GDP
8.2.22. Services balance as a % of GDP
8.2.23. Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current US$ Bn)
8.2.24. Net foreign direct investment as % of GDP
8.2.25. International reserves, including gold
8.2.26. External Debt as % of GDP
8.3. Energy and Utilities
8.3.1. Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation
8.3.2. Hydroelectricity Net Generation
8.3.3. Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity
8.3.4. Electricity Imports
8.3.5. Petroleum Consumption
8.3.6. Total Non-Hydro Renewable Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatts)
8.4. Infrastructure Quality and Availability
8.4.1. Air transport, freight
8.5. Minerals
8.5.1. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output
8.6. Technology
8.6.1. Patents Granted
8.7. Telecommunication
8.7.1. Telephone Lines
8.7.2. Telephone Lines Penetration Rate
9 Appendix
9.1. About SDI
9.2. Disclaimer


List of Tables


Table 1: Kenyan Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2011-2015
Table 2: Kenyan Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2016-2020
Table 3: Kenyan Defense Expenditure (KES Billion), 2011-2015
Table 4: Kenyan Defense Expenditure (KES Billion), 2016-2020
Table 5: Kenyan GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2011-2015
Table 6: Kenyan GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2016-2020
Table 7: Kenyan Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2011-2015
Table 8: Kenyan Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2016-2020
Table 9: Kenyan Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Million), 2011-2015
Table 10: Kenyan Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Million), 2016-2020
Table 11: Kenyan Defense Capital Expenditure (KES Billion), 2011-2015
Table 12: Kenyan Defense Capital Expenditure (KES Billion), 2016-2020
Table 13: Kenyan Defense Revenue Expenditure (US$ Million), 2011-2015
Table 14: Kenyan Defense Revenue Expenditure (US$ Million), 2016-2020
Table 15: Kenyan Defense Revenue Expenditure (KES Billion), 2011-2015
Table 16: Kenyan Defense Revenue Expenditure (KES Billion), 2016-2020
Table 17: Kenyan Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2011-2015
Table 18: Kenyan Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2016-2020
Table 19: Kenyan Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Million), 2011-2015
Table 20: Kenyan Homeland Security Budget (US$ Million), 2016-2020
Table 21: Kenyan Homeland Security Budget (KES Billion), 2011-2015
Table 22: Kenyan Homeland Security Budget (KES Billion), 2016-2020
Table 23: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2011-2015 vs. 2016-2020
Table 24: SDI Terrorism Index
Table 25: Kenya Ordnance Factories Corporation- Product Focus
Table 26: Rosoboronexport - Product Focus
Table 27: Rosoboronexport - Recent Contract Wins
Table 28: Grob Aircraft- Product Focus
Table 29: Grob Aircraft - Recent Contract Wins


List of Figures


Figure 1: Kenyan Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2011-2015
Figure 2: Kenyan Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2016-2020
Figure 3: Kenyan Defense Expenditure (KES Billion), 2011-2015
Figure 4: Kenyan Defense Expenditure (KES Billion), 2016-2020
Figure 5: Kenyan GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2011-2015
Figure 6: Kenyan GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2016-2020
Figure 7: Kenyan Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2011-2015
Figure 8: Kenyan Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2016-2020
Figure 9: Kenyan Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Million),2011-2015
Figure 10: Kenyan Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Million), 2016-2020
Figure 11: Kenyan Defense Capital Expenditure (KES Billion), 2011-2015
Figure 12: Kenyan Defense Capital Expenditure (KES Billion), 2016-2020
Figure 13: Kenyan Defense Revenue Expenditure (US$ Million), 2011-2015
Figure 14: Kenyan Defense Revenue Expenditure (US$ Million), 2016-2020
Figure 15: Kenyan Defense Revenue Expenditure (KES Billion), 2011-2015
Figure 16: Kenyan Defense Revenue Expenditure (KES Billion), 2016-2020
Figure 17: Kenyan Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2011-2015
Figure 18: Kenyan Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2016-2020
Figure 19: Kenyan Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Million), 2011-2015
Figure 20: Kenyan Homeland Security Budget (US$ Million), 2016-2020
Figure 21: Kenyan Homeland Security Budget (KES Billion), 2011-2015
Figure 22: Kenyan Homeland Security Budget (KES Billion), 2016-2020
Figure 23: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, 2015
Figure 24: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2011-2015 vs. 2016-2020
Figure 25: Defense Expenditure of the Worlds Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2015 and 2020
Figure 26: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2015
Figure 27: SDI Terrorism Index, 2015
Figure 28: Kenyan Defense Import Trend, 2010-2013 (TIV values)
Figure 29: Kenyan Defense Imports by Country (%), 2010-2013
Figure 30: Kenyan Defense Imports by Category (%), 2010-2013
Figure 31: Industry Dynamics Porters Five Forces Analysis
Figure 32: Kenyan Rural Population (In Millions), 2015-2024
Figure 33: Kenyan Urban Population (In Millions), 2015-2024
Figure 34: Kenyan Number of Households (In Millions), 2008-2017
Figure 35: Kenyan GDP Per Capita, 2015-2024
Figure 36: Kenyan GDP, Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2015-2024
Figure 37: Kenyan Exports of goods and services (current USD Bn), 2003-2012
Figure 38: Kenyan Imports of goods and services (current USD Bn), 2003-2012
Figure 39: Kenyan Gross National disposable income (USD Bn), 2003-2012
Figure 40: Kenyan Manufacturing Output (USD Bn), 2003-2012
Figure 41: Kenyan Consumer Price Index, 2015-2024
Figure 42: Local Currency per USD, 2015-2024
Figure 43: Local Currency per Euro, 2015-2024
Figure 44: Lending Rate (%), 2003-2012
Figure 45: Deposit Rate (%), 2003-2012
Figure 46: Real Interest Rate (%), 2003-2012
Figure 47: Kenyan Market capitalization of listed companies (USD Bn), 2003-2012
Figure 48: Kenyan Market capitalization of listed companies (% of GDP), 2002-2011
Figure 49: Kenyan Total Government cash surplus/deficit (LCU Bn), 2004-2011
Figure 50: Kenyan Government cash surplus/deficit as % of GDP (LCU), 2002-2011
Figure 51: Kenyan Goods exports as a % of GDP, 2002-2011
Figure 52: Kenyan Goods imports as a % of GDP, 2002-2011
Figure 53: Kenyan Goods balance as a % of GDP, 2003-2011
Figure 54: Kenyan Services imports as a % of GDP, 2002-2011
Figure 55: Kenyan Service exports as a % of GDP, 2003-2011
Figure 56: Kenyan Services balance as a % of GDP, 2002-2011
Figure 57: Kenyan Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current US$ Bn), 2002-2011
Figure 58: Kenyan Net foreign direct investment as % of GDP, 2003-2011
Figure 59: Kenyan International reserves, including gold (US$ Billion), 2002-2011
Figure 60: Kenyan External Debt as % of GDP (%), 2001-2010
Figure 61: Kenyan Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2001-2010
Figure 62: Kenyan Hydroelectricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2001-2010
Figure 63: Kenyan Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Million Kilowatts), 2001-2010
Figure 64: Kenyan Electricity Imports (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2001-2010
Figure 65: Kenyan Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels Per Day), 2003-2012
Figure 66: Kenyan Total Non-Hydro Renewable Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatts), 2002-2011
Figure 67: Kenyan Air transport freight (million ton-km), 2002-2011
Figure 68: Kenyan Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ Billion), 2003-2012
Figure 69: Kenyan Patents Granted, 2002-2011
Figure 70: Kenyan Telephone Lines (In Million), 2003-2012
Figure 71: Kenyan Telephone Lines Penetration Rate (Per 100 People), 2003-2012
Kenya Ordnance Factories Corporation, Rosoboronexport, Grob Aircraft

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