Future of the Lebanese Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2021

Future of the Lebanese Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2021

Code: SDI-DF0354MR | Published: Mar-2016 | Pages: 74 | Strategic Defence Intelligence
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The Lebanese defense market will be driven bysectarian violence, the war with Israel, unrest in refugee camps, militancy, and homegrown extremism. In addition, the capital expenditure allocation is anticipated to average 33.1% of the total defense budget during 2017-2021, and defense equipment procurements are expected to be in the areas of militaryrotorcraft, anti-tank and anti-aircraft capabilities, and C4ISR systems.

Key Findings
- During 2012-2016, Lebanese defense expenditure registered a growth rate of 6.48%, increasing from US$1.2 billion in 2012 to US$1.5 billion in 2016

- Military expenditure is anticipated to register a CAGR of 6.63% during 2017-2021, to value US$2.1 billion in 2021

- A small defense budget, restrictions on weapon sales, and a UN arms embargoimposechallenges for the Lebanese defense market

- Demand for equipment is mainly expected to revolve around military rotorcraft, anti-tank and anti-aircraft capabilities, and C4ISR systemsduring 2017-2021

Synopsis
Strategic Defence Intelligencesreport - Future of the Lebanese Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2021 offers detailed analysis of the industry with market size forecasts from 2017-2021. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand in the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following:

- Defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the defense industry during 2017-2021, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators. It also provides a snapshot of the countrys expenditure and modernization patterns

- Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to the army, navy, and air force. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country

- Porters Five Force analysis of the defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry

- Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the countrys imports and exports over the last five years

- Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities from 2016 to 2026

- Competitive landscape and strategic insights: including an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis

Reasons To Buy
- Identify and track the global defense market and make regional comparisons to effectively target new revenue streams

- Understand the importance of being led by the defense ministries in the military procurement market and define your strategies with insight on what your customers really want by analyzing recent orders, technical specifications, and the countrys expected investment pattern during 2017-2021

- Make correct business decisions based on detailed analysis of the defense industry from 2017-2021,which includes a total competitive landscape of the sector with detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers along with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis

- Determine prospective investment areas by gaining an in-depth understanding of the industry in terms of market opportunities

- Channel resources by identifyingvarious military requirements that are expected to generate revenues across different sectors during 2017-2021

Table of Contents

1 Introduction
1.1. What is this Report About?
1.2. Definitions
1.3. Summary Methodology
1.4. SDI Terrorism Index
1.5. About Strategic Defence Intelligence
2 Executive Summary
3 Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
3.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
3.1.1. Defense expenditure expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.63% over the forecast period
3.1.2. Cross border violence expected to be a key factor driving defense expenditure
3.1.3. Defense budget as a percentage of GDP expected to increase during the forecast period
3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
3.2.1. Capital expenditure allocation to average 33.1% of the total budget over the forecast period
3.2.2. Capital expenditure to resister a CAGR of 6.71% during the forecast period
3.2.3. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase over the forecast period
3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.3.1. Homeland security budget expected to increase over the forecast period
3.3.2. Sectarian violence and drug trafficking will be the key factors driving homeland security
3.3.3. Lebanon considered in the highly affected category in terms of terrorist attack
3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.4.1. Lebanon to remain at the bottom of the Top defense spenders list
3.4.2. The countrys defense budget is low compared to other Middle Eastern countries
3.4.3. Lebanon trails its neighbors in terms of defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP
3.4.4. Lebanon is one of the countries highly affected by terror attacks
3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Drivers
3.5.1. Demand for military helicopters to increase
3.5.2. Anti-tank missiles expected to be in demand
3.5.3. Defense and logistics systems to be enhanced to enable informed actions against any attack
4 Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
4.1. Import Market Dynamics
4.1.1. Defense industry heavily relies on imports from foreign countries
4.1.2. The US and Jordan were the key defense suppliers to Lebanon
4.1.3. Artillery and armored vehicles dominated Lebanese defense imports during the historic period
4.2. Export Market Dynamics
4.2.1. Lebanons defense export market is negligible
5 Industry Dynamics
5.1. Five Forces Analysis
5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: high
5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: low
5.1.3. Barrier to entry: high
5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: low
5.1.5. Threat of substitution: low
6 Market Entry Strategy
6.1. Market Regulation
6.1.1. The Lebanese Government prohibits FDI in the defense industry
6.1.2. Lebanon does not disclose any offset obligations imposed by the country
6.2. Market Entry Route
6.2.1. Government-to-government deals are the preferred market entry route for foreign OEMs
6.3. Key Challenges
6.3.1. Small defense budget does not attract investors and suppliers
6.3.2. Restrictions on weapon sales and UN arms embargo
7 Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
7.1.1. Lebanese defense sector is dominated by foreign competitors
7.2. Key Foreign Companies
7.2.1. Bell Helicopter Textron, Inc.: overview
7.2.2. Bell Helicopter Textron, Inc.: products and services
7.2.3. Bell Helicopter Textron, Inc.: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.4. Bell Helicopter Textron, Inc.: recent contract wins
7.2.5. MBDA: Overview
7.2.6. MBDA: Major Products and Services
7.2.7. MBDA: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives
7.2.8. MBDA: Alliances
8 Business Environment and Country Risk
8.1. Economic Performance
8.1.1. GDP per Capita
8.1.2. Gross Domestic Product
8.1.3. National Disposal Income (US$ Bn)
8.1.4. Exports of Goods and Services
8.1.5. Imports of Goods and Services
8.1.6. LCU per USD (period average)
8.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies
8.1.8. Market Capitalization of listed companies as a % GDP
8.1.9. Total Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as % of GDP
8.1.10. Goods Exports as a % of GDP
8.1.11. Goods Imports as a % of GDP
8.1.12. Services Imports as a % of GDP
8.1.13. Services Exports as a % of GDP
8.1.15. Net Foreign Direct Investment
8.1.16. Net Foreign Direct Investment as % of GDP
8.2. Minerals
8.2.1. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output
9 Appendix
9.1. About SDI
9.2. Disclaimer

List of Tables


Table 1: Lebanese Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2012-2016
Table 2: Lebanese Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2017-2021
Table 3: Lebanese Defense Expenditure (LBP Billion), 2012-2016
Table 4: Lebanese Defense Expenditure (LBP Billion), 2017-2021
Table 5: Lebanese GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2012-2016
Table 6: Lebanese GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2017-2021
Table 7: Lebanese Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2012-2016
Table 8: Lebanese Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2017-2021
Table 9: Lebanese Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Million), 2012-2016
Table 10: Lebanese Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Million), 2017-2021
Table 11: Lebanese Defense Capital Expenditure (LBP Billion), 2012-2016
Table 12: Lebanese Defense Capital Expenditure (LBP Billion), 2017-2021
Table 13: Lebanese Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2012-2016
Table 14: Lebanese Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2017-2021
Table 15: Lebanese Homeland Security Budget (US$ Million), 2012-2016
Table 16: Lebanese Homeland Security Budget (US$ Million), 2017-2021
Table 17: Lebanese Homeland Security Budget (LBP Billion), 2012-2016
Table 18: Lebanese Homeland Security Budget (LBP Billion), 2017-2021
Table 19: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2012-2016 vs. 2017-2021
Table 20: Terrorism Index
Table 21: Bell Helicopter Textron, Inc. - Product Focus
Table 22: Bell Helicopter Textron, Inc. - Recent Contract Wins
Table 23: MBDA - Major Products and Services
Table 24: MBDA - Alliances

List of Figures


Figure 1: Lebanese Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2012-2016
Figure 2: Lebanese Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2017-2021
Figure 3: Lebanese Defense Expenditure (LBP Billion), 2012-2016
Figure 4: Lebanese Defense Expenditure (LBP Billion), 2017-2021
Figure 5: Lebanese GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditures Percentage of GDP Growth, 2012-2016
Figure 6: Lebanese GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2017-2021
Figure 7: Lebanese Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2012-2016
Figure 8: Lebanese Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2017-2021
Figure 9: Lebanese Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Million), 2012-2016
Figure 10: Lebanese Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Million), 2017-2021
Figure 11: Lebanese Defense Capital Expenditure (LBP Billion), 2012-2016
Figure 12: Lebanese Defense Capital Expenditure (LBP Billion), 2017-2021
Figure 13: Lebanese Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2012-2016
Figure 14: Lebanese Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2017-2021
Figure 15: Lebanese Homeland Security Budget (US$ Million), 2012-2016
Figure 16: Lebanese Homeland Security Budget (US$ Million), 2017-2021
Figure 17: Lebanese Homeland Security Budget (LBP Billion), 2012-2016
Figure 18: Lebanese Homeland Security Budget (LBP Billion), 2017-2021
Figure 19: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, 2016
Figure 20: SDI Terrorism Index, 2016
Figure 21: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2012-2016 vs. 2017-2021
Figure 22: Benchmarking with Worlds Largest Defense Spenders (US$ Billion), 2016 and 2021
Figure 23: Benchmarking with Large Defense Spenders as % of GDP-2016
Figure 24: Military Helicopters Market Size (US$ Million), 2016-2026
Figure 25: Anti-tank Missiles Market Size (US$ Million), 2016-2026
Figure 26: Lebanese Defense Import Trend, 2011-2015 (TIV values)
Figure 27: Lebanese Defense Imports by Country (%), 2011-2015
Figure 28: Lebanese Defense Imports by Weapon Category (%), 2011-2015
Figure 29: Industry Dynamics - Porters Five Forces Analysis
Figure 30: Lebanese GDP per Capita (US$), 2016-2025
Figure 31: Lebanese GDP (current US$ bn), 2015-2024
Figure 32: National Disposable Income (US$ bn), 2001-2010
Figure 33: Lebanese Exports of Goods and Services (current US$ Bn), 2005-2014
Figure 34: Lebanese Imports of Goods and Services (current US$ Bn), 2005-2014
Figure 35: Lebanese LCU per USD, 2016-2025
Figure 36: Lebanese Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Bn), 2003-2012
Figure 37: Lebanese Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (%of GDP), 2003-2012
Figure 38: Lebanese Total Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as % of GDP, 2003-2012
Figure 39: Lebanese Goods Exports as a % of GDP, 2005-2013
Figure 40: Lebanese Goods Imports as a % of GDP, 2005-2013
Figure 41: Lebanese Services Imports as a % of GDP, 2005-2013
Figure 42: Lebanese Services Exports as a % of GDP, 2005-2013
Figure 43: Lebanese Net Foreign Direct Investment (US$ Bn), 2005-2013
Figure 44: Lebanese Net Foreign Direct Investment as % of GDP, 2002-2011
Figure 45: Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (in Millions), 2003-2012
Bell Helicopter Textron Inc.
MBDA

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