Future of the Nigerian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020

Future of the Nigerian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020

Code: SDI-DF0326MR | Published: Jul-2015 | Pages: 102 | Strategic Defence Intelligence
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The Future of the Nigerian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020 published by Strategic Defence Intelligence, provides readers with a detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

Key Findings
- With a defense budget of US$2.0 billion in 2015, Nigeria is currently an attractive military spender in the African region

- Insurgency, piracy, oil smuggling, and peacekeeping operations are factors driving military expenditure

- The countrys capital expenditure is expected to increase from US$0.23 billion in 2015 to US$0.3 billion in 2020, growing at a strong CAGR of 4.60% during the forecast period

- The government is expected to procure multi-role aircraft, attack helicopters, patrol vessels, armored personnel carriers, and other surveillance equipment

Synopsis
This report offers detailed analysis of the Nigerian defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following:

- Defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the defense industry during 2016-2020, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the countrys spending patterns and modernization patterns

- Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to the army, navy, and air force. It also details the key challenges faced by the defense market participants within the country

- Porters Five Force analysis of the Nigerian defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, tthreat of substitutions, intensity of rivalry,and barrier to entry

- Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the countrys imports and exports over the last five years

- Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the coming 10 years

- Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis

Reasons To Buy
- This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Nigerian defense industry market trends for the coming five years

- The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period

- Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector

- A deep qualitative analysis of the Nigerian defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porters Five Force Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts

Table of Contents

1. Introduction
1.1. What is this Report About?
1.2. Definitions
1.3. Summary Methodology
1.4. SDI Terrorism Index
1.5. About Strategic Defence Intelligence
2. Executive Summary
3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
3.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
3.1.1. Defense expenditure is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.89% during the forecast period
3.1.2. Insurgency, piracy, oil smuggling, and peacekeeping operations are expected to drive defense expenditure
3.1.3. Defense budget as a percentage of GDP expected to average 0.4% over the forecast period
3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
3.2.1. Allocation for capital expenditure expected to average at 11.7% over the forecast period
3.2.2. Capital expenditure budget expected to grow at 4.60% over the forecast period
3.2.3. Allocation for the army accounts for the majority of the defense budget
3.2.4. Army expenditure to grow at a CAGR 3.72% over the forecast period
3.2.5. Naval expenditure to grow at a CAGR of 3.70% over the forecast period
3.2.6. Expenditure on the air force to increase during the forecast period
3.2.7. Per-capita defense expenditure expected to increase during the forecast period
3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.3.1. Homeland security budget projected to increase during the forecast period
3.3.2. The threat from Boko Haram, drug trafficking, cybercrime, and money laundering to drive the homeland security market
3.3.3. Nigeria falls under the worst affected category by terrorist attack
3.3.4. Nigeria experienced extreme terror activity during the historic period
3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.4.1. The countrys defense budget is expected to increase during the forecast period
3.4.2. Nigerian military expenditure is limited compared to countries with the largest defense expenditure ..... 50
3.4.3. The country allocates a lower percentage of GDP to defense
3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
3.5.1. Fighters and Multi-role Aircraft
3.5.2. Attack Helicopters
3.5.3. C2/C4ISR
4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
4.1. Import Market Dynamics
4.1.1. Limited capability of the domestic defense market drives imports
4.1.2. Defense imports expected to increase during the forecast period
4.1.3. China, the US, and Italy account for the majority of the countrys defense imports
4.1.4. Aircraft and ships are the largest imported military hardware
4.2. Export Market Dynamics
4.2.1. Nigeria does not export arms due to its underdeveloped domestic arms industry
5. Industry Dynamics
5.1. Five Forces Analysis
5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: low to medium
5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: medium to high
5.1.3. Barrier to entry: medium
5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: low
5.1.5. Threat of substitution: low
6. Market Entry Strategy
6.1. Market Regulation
6.1.1. Nigeria does not disclose any offset obligations imposed by the country
6.1.2. FDI in the defense sector prohibited by the Nigerian government
6.2. Market Entry Route
6.2.1. Direct selling is the preferred market entry route for foreign OEMs
6.3. Key Challenges
6.3.1. Corruption acts as an obstacle for market entry
6.3.2. Small defense budget does not attract suppliers
7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
7.2. Key Domestic Companies
7.2.1. Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: overview
7.2.2. Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: products and services
7.2.3. Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.4. Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: alliances
7.2.5. Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: recent contract awards
7.2.6. Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited: overview
7.2.7. Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited: products and services
8. Business Environment and Country Risk
8.1. Demographics and Social Statistics
8.1.1. Population - Rural
8.1.2. Population - Urban
8.1.3. Population - Number of Households
8.2. Economic Performance
8.2.1. Gross Domestic per Capita
8.2.2. Gross Domestic Product, current US$
8.2.3. Exports of Goods and Services
8.2.4. Imports of Goods and Services
8.2.5. Gross National disposable income (USD Bn)
8.2.6. Manufacturing Output
8.2.7. Consumer Price Index
8.2.8. Local Currency Unit per US$
8.2.9. Local Currency Unit per EUR
8.2.10. Lending Rate (%)
8.2.11. Deposit Rate (%)
8.2.12. Real Interest Rate (%)
8.2.13. Market capitalization of listed companies (USD Bn)
8.2.14. Goods Exports as a % of GDP
8.2.15. Goods Imports as a % of GDP
8.2.16. Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit as a % of GDP
8.2.17. Services Imports as a % of GDP
8.2.18. Services Exports as a % of GDP
8.2.19. Services trade surplus/deficit as a % of GDP
8.2.20. Net Foreign Direct Investment
8.2.21. Net FDI as a percentage of GDP
8.2.22. International reserves, including Gold
8.3. Energy and Utilities
8.3.1. Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation
8.3.2. Hydroelectricity Net Generation
8.3.3. Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity
8.3.4. Proved Reserves of Natural Gas (Trillion Cubic Feet)
8.3.5. Total Petroleum Consumption
8.3.6. Crude Oil Proved Reserves (Billion Barrels)
8.4. Telecommunication
8.4.1. Telephone lines
9. Appendix
9.1. About SDI
9.2. Disclaimer

List of Tables


Table 1: Nigerian Defense Expenditure (in US$ Bn), 2011-2015
Table 2: Nigerian Defense Expenditure (in US$ Bn), 2016-2020
Table 3: Nigerian Defense Expenditure (in NGN Bn), 2011-2015
Table 4: Nigerian Defense Expenditure (in NGN Bn), 2016-2020
Table 5: Nigerian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2011-2015
Table 6: Nigerian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2016-2020
Table 7: Nigerian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth (in Local Currency Terms), 2011-2015
Table 8: Nigerian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth (in Local Currency Terms), 2016-2020
Table 9: Nigerian Defense Budget Split between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2011-2015
Table 10: Nigerian Defense Budget Split between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2016-2020
Table 11: Nigerian Capital Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), 2011-2015
Table 12: Nigerian Capital Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2016-2020
Table 13: Nigerian Capital Budget Allocation (NGN Billion), 2011-2015
Table 14: Nigerian Capital Budget Allocation (NGN billion), 2016-2020
Table 15: Nigerian Defense budget Split between the Army, Air Force, Navy, and Others, 2011-2015
Table 16: Nigerian Defense budget Split between the Army, Air Force, Navy, and Others, 2016-2020
Table 17: Nigerian Expenditure on Army(US$ Billion), 2011-2015
Table 18: Nigerian Expenditure on Army (US$ Billion), 2016-2020
Table 19: Nigerian Expenditure on Navy (US$ Billion), 2011-2015
Table 20: Nigerian Expenditure on Navy (US$ Billion), 2016-2020
Table 21: Nigerian Expenditure on Air Force (US$ Billion), 2011-2015
Table 22: Nigerian Expenditure on Air Force (US$ Billion), 2016-2020
Table 23: Nigerian Per-Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2011-2015
Table 24: Nigerian Per-Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2016-2020
Table 25: Nigerian Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2011-2015
Table 26: Nigerian Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2016-2020
Table 27: SDI Terrorism Index
Table 28: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2011-2015 vs. 2016-2020
Table 29: Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria - Main Products
Table 30: Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Alliances
Table 31: Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Recent Contract Awards
Table 32: Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited - Main Services

List of Figures


Figure 1: Nigerian Defense Expenditure (in US$ Bn), 2011-2015
Figure 2: Nigerian Defense Expenditure (in US$ Bn), 2016-2020
Figure 3: Nigerian Defense Expenditure (in NGN Bn), 2011-2015
Figure 4: Nigerian Defense Expenditure (in NGN Bn), 2016-2020
Figure 5: Nigerian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2011-2015
Figure 6: Nigerian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2016-2020
Figure 7: Nigerian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth (in Local Currency Terms), 2011-2015
Figure 8: Nigerian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth (in Local Currency Terms), 2016-2020
Figure 9: Nigerian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2011-2015
Figure 10: Nigerian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2016-2020
Figure 11: Nigerian Capital Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), 2011-2015
Figure 12: Nigerian Capital Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2016-2020
Figure 13: Nigerian Capital Budget Allocation (NGN billion), 2011-2015
Figure 14: Nigerian Capital Budget Allocation (NGN billion), 2016-2020
Figure 15: Nigerian Defense budget Split between the Army, Air Force, Navy, and Others, 2011-2015
Figure 16: Nigerian Defense budget Split between the Army, Air Force, Navy, and Others, 2016-2020
Figure 17: Nigerian Expenditure on Army (US$ Billion), 2011-2015
Figure 18: Nigerian Expenditure on Army (US$ Billion), 2016-2020
Figure 19: Nigerian Expenditure on Navy (US$ Billion), 2011-2015
Figure 20: Nigerian Expenditure on Navy(US$ Billion), 2016-2020
Figure 21: Nigerian Expenditure on Air Force (US$ Billion), 2011-2015
Figure 22: Nigerian Expenditure on Air Force (US$ Billion), 2016-2020
Figure 23:Nigerian Per-Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2011-2015
Figure 24: Nigerian Per-Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2016-2020
Figure 25: Nigerian Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2011-2015
Figure 26: Nigerian Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2016-2020
Figure 27: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, 2015
Figure 28: SDI Terrorism Index, 2015
Figure 29: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2011-2015 vs. 2016-2020
Figure 30: Defense Expenditure of the Worlds Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2015 and 2020
Figure 31: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2015
Figure 32: Fighters and Multi-role Aircraft Market Size (US$ Million), 2015-2025
Figure 33: Marine Helicopters Market Size (US$ Million), 2015-2025
Figure 34: C2/C4ISR Market Size (US$ Million), 2015- 2025
Figure 35: Nigerian Defense Import Trend, 2010-2014 (TIV values)
Figure 36: Nigerian Defense Imports by Country (US$ Million), 2010-2014
Figure 37: Nigerian Defense Imports by Category (%), 2010-2014
Figure 38: Industry Dynamics - Porters Five Forces Analysis
Figure 39: Nigerias Population - Rural (In Millions), 2014-2024
Figure 40: Nigerias Population - Urban (In Millions), 2014-2024
Figure 41: Nigerias Population - Number of Households (In Millions), 2008-2017
Figure 42: Nigerias GDP per capita, 2014-2024
Figure 43: Nigerias Gross Domestic Product (current US$ Billion), 2014-2024
Figure 44: Nigerias Exports of goods and services (current US$ Billion), 2002-2011
Figure 45: Nigerias Imports of goods and services (current US$ Billion), 2002-2011
Figure 46: Nigerias Gross National disposable income (US$ Bn), 2002-2011
Figure 47: Nigerias Manufacturing Output (US$ Billion), 2002-2011
Figure 48: Nigerias Consumer Price Index, 2014-2024
Figure 49: Nigerias LCU per US$, 2014-2024
Figure 50: Nigerias LCU per EUR, 2014-2024
Figure 51: Nigerias Lending Rate (%), 2003-2012
Figure 52: Nigerias Deposit Rate (%), 2003-2012
Figure 53: Nigerias Real Interest Rate (%),2003-2012
Figure 54: Nigerias Market capitalization of listed companies (USD Bn), 2003-2012
Figure 55: Nigerias Goods Exports as a % of GDP, 2002-2011
Figure 56: Nigerias Goods Imports as a % of GDP, 2002-2011
Figure 57: Nigerias Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit as a % of GDP, 2002-2011
Figure 58: Nigerias Services Imports as a % of GDP, 2002-2011
Figure 59: Nigerias Services Exports as a % of GDP, 2002-2011
Figure 60: Nigerias Services trade surplus/deficit as a % of GDP, 2002-2011
Figure 61: Nigerias Net Foreign Direct Investment (current US$ Billion), 2002-2011
Figure 62: Nigerias Net FDI as a percentage of GDP, 2002-2011
Figure 63: Nigerias International reserves, including Gold (US$ Billion), 2002-2011
Figure 64: Nigerias Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt Hours),2001-2010
Figure 65: Nigerias Hydroelectricity Net Generation (Billion KWH), 2001-2010
Figure 66: Nigerias Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Million
Figure 67: Nigerias Proved Reserves of Natural Gas (Trillion Cubic Feet), 2004-2013
Figure 68: Nigerias Total Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels per Day), 2003-2012
Figure 69: Nigerias Crude Oil Proved Reserves (Billion Barrels), 2004-2013
Figure 70: Nigerias Telephone lines, 2002-2011
Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited (DANA) and Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria (DICON)

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