Future of the Vietnamese Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020

Future of the Vietnamese Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020

Code: SDI-DF0318MR | Published: Jun-2015 | Pages: 100 | Strategic Defence Intelligence
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The Future of the Vietnamese Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020, published by Strategic Defence Intelligence, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

Key Findings
- Over the historic period, Vietnams defense expenditure registered a CAGR of 14.25%; between 2016 and 2020, the defense budget is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.51%

- The countrys total defense expenditure during the forecast period is expected to be US$34.1billion

- The average share of capital expenditure is expected to be 33% over the forecast period, compared to an average share of 32.1% during 2011-2015

- Over the forecast period, the countrys budget for homeland security is expected to be US$16.2 billion cumulatively

- The key areas of investment are expected to be corvettes, submarine, and surveillance equipment

Synopsis
This report offers detailed analysis of the Vietnamese defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.
In particular, it provides in-depth analysis of the following:

- Vietnamese defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Vietnamese defense industry during 2016-2020, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the countrys expenditure and modernization patterns

- Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to the army, navy, and air force. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country

- Porters Five Force analysis of the Vietnamese defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry

- Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the countrys imports and exports over the last five years

- Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the coming 10 years

- Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Vietnamese defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis

Reasons To Buy
- This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Vietnamese defense industry market trends for the coming five years

- The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period

- Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector

- A deep qualitative analysis of the Vietnamese defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porters Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts

Table of Contents

Introduction
1.1. What is this Report About?
1.2. Definitions
1.3. Summary Methodology
1.4. SDI Terrorism Index
1.5. About Strategic Defence Intelligence
2. Executive Summary
3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
3.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
3.1.1. Defense expenditure is projected to grow at a CAGR of 7.51% during the forecast period
3.1.2. Military modernization and the crisis in the South China Sea are expected to be the prime factors driving Vietnamese military expenditure
3.1.3. Defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to hover around 2.6% over the forecast period
3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
3.2.1. Share of capital expenditure in the overall defense budget is expected to increase
3.2.2. Vietnams capital expenditure is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.49% over the forecast period ......... 26
3.2.3. Per capita defense expenditure to be US$80.2 by 2020
3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.3.1. Homeland security expenditure is expected to be US$4.0 billion by 2020
3.3.2. The main factors driving homeland security expenditure are illicit drugs trade and human trafficking .... 36
3.3.3. Vietnam faces a minimal threat from foreign terrorist organizations
3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.4.1. Vietnamese defense expenditure is expected to remain low compared to leading spenders
3.4.2. Vietnam has a low defense expenditure compared to other Asian countries
3.4.3. Vietnams defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is higher than leading Asian defense spenders
3.4.4. Vietnam faces negligible threat from foreign terrorist organizations
3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
3.5.1. Frigates
3.5.2. SSK-Diesel Electric Submarine
3.5.3. Infrastructure Construction
4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
4.1. Import Market Dynamics
4.1.1. Limited domestic defense capabilities drives the countrys defense imports
4.1.2. Defense imports are expected to increase over the forecast period
4.1.3. Russia is a significant defense trade partner of Vietnam
4.1.4. Ships and aircraft account for the majority of defense imports over 2010-2014
4.2. Export Market Dynamics
4.2.1. The country has been unable to access the global defense market
5. Industry Dynamics
5.1. Five Forces Analysis
5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: medium
5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: low
5.1.3. Barrier to entry: medium
5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: low
5.1.5. Threat of substitution: low to medium
6. Market Entry Strategy
6.1. Market Regulation
6.1.1. Vietnamese government unveils new procurement rules
6.1.2. Vietnam has not disclosed any offset obligations
6.2. Market Entry Route
6.2.1. Foreign equipment manufacturers can enter the market through direct commercial sales
6.2.2. Government-to-government deals are an attractive entry route to the countrys defense market ........... 58
6.3. Key Challenges
6.3.1. Lack of private participants and foreign direct investment may restrict domestic defense industry growth
6.3.2. Lack of transparency and corruption impedes the growth of Vietnams defense industry
7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
7.2. Key Companies
7.2.1. Vietnam Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (SBIC): overview
7.2.2. Vietnam Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (SBIC): products
7.2.3. Vietnam Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (SBIC): recent announcements and strategic initiatives ...... 61
7.2.4. Vietnam Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (SBIC): alliances
7.2.5. Vietnam Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (SBIC): recent contract awards
7.2.6. Sukhoi: overview
7.2.7. Sukhoi: products
7.2.8. Sukhoi: recent contract awards
7.2.9. Admiralty Shipyards: overview
7.2.10. Admiralty Shipyards: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.11. Admiralty Shipyards: products
7.2.12. Admiralty Shipyards: recent contract awards
7.2.13. Damen Schelde Naval Shipbuilding: overview
7.2.14. Damen Schelde Naval Shipbuilding: products
7.2.15. Damen Schelde Naval Shipbuilding: recent contract awards
8. Business Environment and Country Risk
8.1. Demographics and Social Statistics
8.1.1. Population - Rural
8.1.2. Population - Urban
8.1.3. Population - Number of Households
8.2. Economic Performance
8.2.1. Gross Domestic per Capita
8.2.2. Gross Domestic Product, current US$
8.2.3. Exports of Goods and Services
8.2.4. Imports of Goods and Services
8.2.5. Manufacturing Output
8.2.6. Consumer Price Index
8.2.7. Local Currency Unit per US$
8.2.8. Local Currency Unit per EUR
8.2.9. Lending Rate (%)
8.2.10. Deposit Rate (%)
8.2.11. Real Interest Rate (%)
8.2.12. Goods Exports as a percentage of GDP
8.2.13. Goods Imports as a percentage of GDP
8.2.14. Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit as a percentage of GDP
8.2.15. Services Imports as a percentage of GDP
8.2.16. Services Exports as a percentage of GDP
8.2.17. Services trade surplus/deficit as a percentage of GDP
8.2.18. International reserves, including Gold
8.3. Energy and Utilities
8.3.1. Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation
8.3.2. Hydroelectricity Net Generation
8.3.3. Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity
8.3.4. Proved Reserves of Natural Gas (Trillion Cubic Feet)
8.3.5. Total Petroleum Consumption
8.3.6. Crude Oil Proved Reserves (Billion Barrels)
8.4. Infrastructure Quality and Availability
8.4.1. Rail lines, total network
8.4.2. Air Transport, freight (million ton-km)
8.4.3. Overall Construction (US$ billion)
8.5. Minerals
8.5.1. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output
8.6. Telecommunication
8.6.1. Telephone lines
8.6.2. Telephone lines Penetration Rate
9. Appendix
9.1. About SDI
9.2. Disclaimer

List of Tables


Table 1: Vietnamese Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2011-2015
Table 2: Vietnamese Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2016-2020
Table 3: Vietnamese Defense Expenditure (VND Trillion), 2011-2015
Table 4: Vietnamese Defense Expenditure (VND Trillion), 2016-2020
Table 5: Vietnamese GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2011-2015
Table 6: Vietnamese GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2016-2020
Table 7: Vietnamese Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2011-2015
Table 8: Vietnamese Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2016-2020
Table 9: Vietnamese Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ billion), 2011-2015
Table 10: Vietnamese Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ billion), 2016-2020
Table 11: Vietnamese Defense Capital Expenditure (VND Trillion), 2011-2015
Table 12: Vietnamese Defense Capital Expenditure (VND Trillion), 2016-2020
Table 13: Vietnamese Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2011-2015
Table 14: Vietnamese Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2016-2020
Table 15: Vietnamese Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ billion), 2011-2015
Table 16: Vietnamese Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ billion), 2016-2020
Table 17: Vietnamese Homeland Security Expenditure (VND Trillion), 2011-2015
Table 18: Vietnamese Homeland Security Expenditure (VND Trillion), 2016-2020
Table 19: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2011-2015 vs. 2016-2020
Table 20: SDI Terrorism Index
Table 21: Vietnam Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (SBIC) - Product Focus
Table 22: Vietnam Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (SBIC) - Alliances
Table 23: Vietnam Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (SBIC) - Recent Contract Wins
Table 24:Sukhoi - Product Focus
Table 25: Sukhoi - Recent Contract Wins
Table 26:Admiralty Shipyards - Product Focus
Table 27: Admiralty Shipyards - Recent Contract Wins
Table 28: Damen Schelde Naval Shipbuilding - Product Focus
Table 29: Damen Schelde Naval Shipbuilding - Recent Contract Wins

List of Figures


Figure 1: Vietnamese Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2011-2015
Figure 2: Vietnamese Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2016-2020
Figure 3: Vietnamese Defense Expenditure (VND Trillion), 2011-2015
Figure 4: Vietnamese Defense Expenditure (VND Trillion), 2016-2020
Figure 5: Vietnamese GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2011-2015
Figure 6: Vietnamese GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2016-2020
Figure 7: Vietnamese Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2011-2015
Figure 8: Vietnamese Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2016-2020
Figure 9: Vietnamese Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ billion), 2011-2015
Figure 10: Vietnamese Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ billion), 2016-2020
Figure 11: Vietnamese Defense Capital Expenditure (VND Trillion), 2011-2015
Figure 12: Vietnamese Defense Capital Expenditure (VND Trillion), 2016-2020
Figure 13: Vietnamese Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2011-2015
Figure 14: Vietnamese Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2016-2020
Figure 15: Vietnamese Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ billion), 2011-2015
Figure 16: Vietnamese Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ billion), 2016-2020
Figure 17: Vietnamese Homeland Security Expenditure (VND Trillion), 2011-2015
Figure 18: Vietnamese Homeland Security Expenditure (VND Trillion), 2016-2020
Figure 19: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, 2015
Figure 20: SDI Terrorism Index, 2015
Figure 21: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2011-2015 vs. 2016-2020
Figure 22: Benchmarking with Worlds Largest and Top Regional Defense Spenders (US$ Billion), 2015 and 2020
Figure 23: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2015
Figure 24: Frigates Market Size (US$ Million), 2015-2025
Figure 25: SSK-diesel Electric Submarine Market Size (US$ Million), 2015-2025
Figure 26: Infrastructure Construction Market Size (US$ Million), 2015-2025
Figure 27: Vietnamese Defense Import Trend, 2010-2014 (TIV values)
Figure 28: Vietnamese Defense Imports by Country (%), 2010-2014
Figure 29: Vietnamese Defense Imports by Category (%), 2010-2014
Figure 30: Industry Dynamics Porters Five Forces Analysis
Figure 31: Vietnams Population - Rural (Millions), 2015-2024
Figure 32: Vietnams Population - Urban (Millions), 2015-2024
Figure 33: Vietnams Population - Number of Households (In Millions), 2008-2017
Figure 34: Vietnams GDP per capita, 2015-2024
Figure 35: Vietnams Gross Domestic Product (current US$ Billion), 2015-2024
Figure 36: Vietnams Exports of goods and services (current US$ Billion), 2003-2012
Figure 37: Vietnams Imports of goods and services (current US$ Billion), 2003-2012
Figure 38: Vietnams Manufacturing Output (US$ Billion), 2003-2012
Figure 39: Vietnams Consumer Price Index, 2015-2024
Figure 40: Vietnams LCU per US$, 2015-2024
Figure 41: Vietnams LCU per EUR, 2015-2024
Figure 42: Vietnams Lending Rate (%), 2003-2012
Figure 43: Vietnams Deposit Rate (%), 2003-2012
Figure 44: Vietnams Real Interest Rate (%), 2003-2012
Figure 45: Vietnams Goods Exports as a percentage of GDP, 2003-2012
Figure 46: Vietnams Goods Imports as a percentage of GDP, 2003-2012
Figure 47: Vietnams Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit as a percentage of GDP, 2003-2012
Figure 48: Vietnams Services Imports as a percentage of GDP, 2003-2012
Figure 49: Vietnams Services Exports as a percentage of GDP, 2003-2012
Figure 50: Vietnams Services trade surplus/deficit as a percentage of GDP, 2003-2012
Figure 51: Vietnams International reserves, including Gold (US$ Billion), 2003-2012
Figure 52: Vietnams Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt Hours), 2002-2011
Figure 53: Vietnams Hydroelectricity Net Generation (Billion KWH), 2003-2012
Figure 54: Vietnams Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Million
Figure 55: Vietnams Proved Reserves of Natural Gas (Trillion Cubic Feet), 2004-2014
Figure 56: Vietnams Total Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels per Day), 2003-2012
Figure 57: Vietnams Crude Oil Proved Reserves (Billion Barrels), 2005-2014
Figure 58: Vietnams Rail lines (total route-Km), 2003-2012
Figure 59: Vietnams Air Transport, freight (million ton-km), 2003-2012
Figure 60: Vietnams Overall Construction (US$ Billion), 2008-2016
Figure 61: Vietnams Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ Billion), 2003-2012
Figure 62: Vietnams Telephone lines, 2006-2012
Figure 63: Vietnams Telephone lines Penetration Rate (per 100 people), 2006-2012
Vietnam Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (SBIC)
Sukhoi
Admiralty Shipyards
Damen Schelde Naval Shipbuilding (DSNS)

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