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Key Trends for Global Telecoms for 2017 and Beyond;
Internet of Things and M2M;
Low Power Area Networks (LPWA);
Smart Contracts and Block Chain;
Broadband and Fibre-to-the-Premises (FttP);
LTE and 5G;
Video Streaming;Smart Cities.Researchers:- Kylie Wansink, Paul Budde.Current publication date:- July 2016 (13th Edition)
High-speed infrastructure takes hold - paving the way for revenue streamsRecently there was an important development for the broadband sector when the market share of fibre infrastructure lines finally overtook DSL technologies as the largest on a global level.
The fixed broadband network is the infrastructure needed to meet the needs, both economic and societal, of the developed markets. In fact in many of these markets, wireless broadband and FttP are developing in a complementary and harmonious way.
Currently 4G networks offer excellent broadband services and, as long as the usage is limited, the prices are competitive. However, as soon as the mobile networks become used for entertainment services such as Netflix, the affordability drops significantly. Looking ahead, more and more of these entertainment services will be delivered over broadband and more and more people will move from traditional TV to these broadband-based services. At the same time, the quality is moving from HDTV to 4K and it remains unlikely that these services can be supported by wireless networks at affordable prices.
However, if fixed networks operators are not providing FttP infrastructure, and are thus not going to be able to deliver the broadband quality that people demand, the wireless industry will look for new opportunities and will push the boundaries further and further.
The 5G technology is now well and truly under development. While there are no firm standards in place, the industry is working hard at making that happen. In the meantime, the early movers are testing their own versions of the 5G technology and this is giving us information about what we can expect – what the technology will be able to deliver. Commercial 5G is not expected to become available in any significant way until around 2020, with full deployment expected towards the end of that decade.
Developments, strongly facilitated by developments in the ICT industry, are leading to massive economic transformation processes. We see that whole industry sectors and traditional business models have been replaced by new ones. The key reason for these transformations is that in some instances up to 80% of the costs of those traditional business models can be removed.
These processes are relentless and are going to force other sectors to transform as well. Developments linked to cloud computing, data centres, data analytics (big data), machine-to-machine (M2M), the internet-of-things (IoT) and the emerging Blockchain may all play a part in transforming our current world. Ultimately from these developments we are beginning to slowly see the emergence of Smart Cities, and indeed Smart Nations.
Looking at the big picture indicates there many more innovations to emerge in the years ahead. For the operators however, the bottom line is converting these technological developments into revenue generating services and applications. The operators need paying subscribers and consumers who will adopt the services and applications on offer. To this end, video streaming is a great example of the huge impact new technologies can make. Fixed and mobile bandwidth is increasingly under strain from the enormous appetite consumers have demonstrated
for video streaming - and it is the content and service providers alike which are reaping the benefits.
FttX held only a 22% market share of global broadband access technologies in 2013, but by 2016 this had increased to around 47% at the expense of DSL which is in decline.
With the improved coverage and penetration of LTE as well as the massive adoption of smartphones, VoLTE has become a priority throughout the world for operators that wish to bring HD voice service to their LTE customers. Nevertheless, while VoLTE services certainly offer opportunities, Over-The-Top (OTT) mobile VoIP services will attract the largest revenue market shares, at least in the short and medium term.
Key developments for 2017 include M2M and IoT infrastructure, facilitating the development of smart homes, buildings and cities. Many of these applications will be opened up partly through the use of 4G LTE A(dvanced) – a halfway house on the way to full 5G.
LTE Broadcast, or LTE-B, also known as Multimedia Broadcast Multicast Service (eMBMS) took a step further in late April 2016 with the announcement that Verizon, Telstra, KT (South Korea) and EE (United Kingdom) had formed the LTE-B Alliance. The alliance hopes to encourage further operators to join the push for LTE-B – and in particular to encourage device manufacturers to begin making devices LTE-B compatible in 2017.The use of millimetre wave spectrum for 5G took a significant step forward in mid July with the US becoming the first country to designate rules for its usage. Millimetre waves can be beamed through ultra-high speeds (Gb/s), enabling mass-content-storage applications, which are not possible over the current mobile networks. The FCC has adopted the new rules which will open up the millimetre wave spectrum.
Table of Contents
1. Global telecoms – Big picture trends for 2017
1.1 Summary of key global telecoms trends
1.1.1 The importance of broadband
1.1.2 The digital, sharing and interconnected economy
1.1.3 Key global trends for telcoms industry in 2017 and beyond
1.2 IoT, M2M and block chain
1.2.1 Analysis of the M2M and IoT market
1.2.2 Global M2M market
1.2.3 Blockchain and Smart Contracts – building on the Bitcoin platform
2. Broadband technologies – Fibre trends
2.1 Global Fixed Broadband Market
2.1.1 Fibre optic technologies for the next 50 years
2.1.2 Market-led demand for FttP is picking up
2.1.3 Mobile broadband: killer app for FttP
2.1.4 Positive outlook for investments in backbones
2.1.5 Global fixed broadband market summary and statistics
2.1.6 Top 17 major fixed-line carriers worldwide by subscribers
3. Mobile technologies – LTE and 5G trends
3.1 Global Mobile Broadband - LTE, VoLTE, LTE-A, LTE-B and 5G
3.1.2 Global LTE overview
3.1.3 Global LTE subscriptions and deployments
3.1.4 Global VoLTE overview
3.1.5 5G technologies and services
3.1.6 Recent developments
3.1.7 LTE-A - Key statistics
3.1.8 LTE-B – eMBMS
3.1.9 5G platform for M2M and IoT – smart homes and smart cities
3.1.10 Conclusion: Will telcos be able to harness the new business opportunities of 5G?
4. Digital media – Video streaming trends
4.1 Global Mobile and Fixed Video Streaming Market
4.1.2 The video streaming market
4.1.3 Online video media
4.1.4 Video-On-Demand services
4.1.5 Industry insights
4.1.6 Brief case studies
4.1.7 Video streaming over mobile networks
4.1.8 Conclusion: The future of video in telecoms
5. Smart infrastructure – Smart city trends
5.1 Global Smart Cities
5.1.1 Defining smart cities
5.1.2 Smart city challenges becoming clearer
5.1.3 Published smart city statistics
5.1.4 The use of telecommunications in smart cities
5.1.5 Smart buildings
5.1.6 Smart Cities and the open data dilemma
5.1.7 Connected homes gaining market share
5.1.8 Alphabet, Microsoft, Samsung and Apple target smart Home market
5.1.9 Smart Factory – Industry 4.0
5.1.11 Working groups
5.1.12 Smart Cities, Smart Councils
5.1.13 A great city is much more than a smart city
Table 1 - Machine-to-machine applications and technologies, by dispersion and mobility
Table 2 – Global Internet Bandwidth Growth by Tb/s – 2010 – 2014; 2019
Table 3 – Global - Internet users and annual change – 2009 - 2016
Table 4 – Global - fixed broadband subscribers and annual change – 2005 - 2016
Table 5 – Regional – market shares of fixed broadband subscribers – 2014; 2015
Table 6 – Global - broadband market share by access technology – 2013; 2016
Table 7 – Global – average broadband speed by mb/s – 2012 - 2015
Table 8 - Top 10 countries by high broadband connectivity of above 10Mb/s – 2014; 2015
Table 9 – Top 27 countries by high broadband connectivity of above 10Mb/s – 2015
Table 10 – Global – total broadband services revenue – 2011 - 2018
Table 11 – Major 17 fixed-line parent carriers by subscribers - 2014
Table 12 – Global LTE subscribers and annual change – 2011 - 2020
Table 13 – Global LTE network growth – 2010 - 2015
Table 14 – Regional market share of global LTE subscriptions – 2012 – Q3 2015
Table 15 – LTE as percentage of all mobile connections – 2014; 2019
Table 16 – LTE equipped devices by category – 2014; 2019
Table 17 – Global IPTV subscribers – 2010 – 2016
Table 18 – Global OTT video streaming revenue – 2015; 2020
Table 19 – Netflix domestic and international subscriptions – 2011 – Q1 2016
Table 20 – Netflix consolidated revenue – 2009 – Q1 2016
Table 21 – Online video unique visitors – top online video properties in the US – 2010; 2012; 2014; 2015
Table 22 – Estimates on world Smart City investments markets - 2012
Table 23 - Consumers rank the most useful mobile app categories by country
Table 24 - Consumers rank the most useful mobile app categories by age
Chart 1 – Major 17 fixed-line carriers by subscribers - 2014
Exhibit 1 – Harvesting energy from radio frequency
Exhibit 2 – Weightless SIG
Exhibit 3 – FttP business model is gaining strength – Australia in context
Exhibit 4 – LTE definition
Exhibit 5 – VoLTE launches – April 2015
Exhibit 6 – VoLTE: data first, voice second
Exhibit 7 – The Power of 5G
Exhibit 8 – Examples of key IPTV vendors worldwide
Exhibit 9 – Examples of online VoD sites
Exhibit 10 – Equivalence between access modes and traditional audiovisual use
Exhibit 11 – Blockbuster closes its stores across America
Exhibit 12 – Definition: Content Delivery Networks (CDN)
Exhibit 13 – Statistical overview
Exhibit 14 – The Intelligent Communities Forum
Exhibit 15 – Smart city market size, estimates and projections
Exhibit 16 – Examples of HAN technology options
Exhibit 17 – Key smart home players
Exhibit 18 – Alphabet (Google)’s acquisition of Nest and smart homes
Exhibit 19 - Design principles of industry 4.0
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