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Market and industry analyses, trends and developments;
Facts, figures and statistics;
Industry and regulatory issues;
Major players, revenues, subscribers, ARPU;
Broadband, VoIP, IPTV;
Mobile voice and data markets;
Broadband (FttH, DSL, wireless);
Digital Economy and Digital Media sectors eg e-Commerce and e-Payments;Mobile and fixed broadband forecasts to 2020.Researcher:- Phil HarpurCurrent publication date:- August 2016 (22nd Edition)
Mobile Market in Indonesia Continues its Strong Upward TrajectoryThere has been considerable energy and turmoil in Indonesia’s telecom sector over the last decade or so. Growth, both in subscriber numbers and in revenues, has been strong and, more importantly, there are signs that the changes in the regulatory regime and operator restructuring are starting to have a positive effect on the industry. The mobile market has been especially positive. There was a good response to the recent launch of 4G/LTE services.
Fixed broadband internet services, although still very much in their infancy, had become a very significant proportion (around 60%) of the fixed internet subscriber base. The ongoing effort to expand internet access around the country was looking as if it would be impeded by inferior telecommunications infrastructure. This has changed dramatically with the advent of mobile broadband services; the rapid roll-out of the wireless broadband, together with the increasing take up of smartphones, has totally changed the market. Indeed, the country has enormous potential as an online market, with the local population spending a lot of time on line.
Whilst broadband use has grown on the back of a surge in mobile broadband subscriptions and smartphone sales, fixed internet connections remained relatively low, despite broadband development having accelerated. Fixed broadband penetration was still under 2% by 2016 and broadband household penetration was a low 5%.
Invigorated by the highly successful mobile segment on the back of increased competition in the marketplace, the country’s telecom industry has found a new dynamic. The all-important national backbone network is taking shape and on the service side the rapid increase in mobile broadband subscriptions and smartphone take up has been remarkable. However, there had been some signs that the government was hesitating in its efforts to restructure the industry.
The mobile market in Indonesia has experienced an exceptional run of boom years. At the same time the mobile operators have been busily positioning themselves as growth rates start to moderate and competition becomes more intense. Market leader Telkomsel continues to maintain a huge presence despite the increased pressure from the competition. To expand their respective customer bases and build market share, all the operators must offer competitive prices.
Indonesia’s mobile market has grown strongly in recent years, with the number of subscribers passing 320 million coming into 2016. Despite high penetration, there is still considerable opportunity for expansion in Indonesia’s mobile market when compared with some of its Asian neighbours.
With much happening that is positive, a range of structural and economic issues must also be confronted if the local telecom industry is to flourish and cope with the expanding market. For strong growth to continue, the sector must take advantage of the government’s regulatory changes and continue to find ways of attracting foreign capital into the market place. The crowded mobile operator market has at least started on the inevitable rationalisation process. As for the consumers, value-added services have become important as 4G/LTE services are being rolled out, underpinning the major shift to data in the marketplace. Industry consolidation is more likely to have a positive impact on the local telco sector as it will reduce the overcapacity in the market and bring more stability to data tariffs. High smartphone usage is in turn being driven by increased affordability of smartphones in the local market.
Indonesia’s economy continued its run of strong positive growth, with GDP increasing by 4%-6% in 2015/16.
The mobile market in Indonesia has been growing strongly, but at a more modest rate than previously (less than 10% annually).
The fixed line market (wireless and wireline) continues to suffer setbacks with a rapidly declining subscriber base.
Construction of the US$1.5 billion Palapa Ring optical fibre cable project is continuing.
Government initiative on national infrastructure to push fibre and 4G coverage nationwide.
Market leader Telkomsel was continuing to dominate the mobile market, with its mobile subscriber base of around 45% market share.
Having acquired rival operator Axis, by early 2015 Axiata had adopted a dual-brand strategy, promoting both XL and Axis equally.
Social networking continues to be very popular in Indonesia;
Investment in data centres has started to take off;
There are early signs of adoption of cloud computing by local industry;
Both Telkom and Indosat have been expanding the number of WiFi hotspots around the country;
Google has been actively involved in an Indonesian startup incubation program.Companies mentioned in this report:
PT Telkom; PT Indosat; Bakrie Telecom (BTEL); Qatar Telecom (QTel); PT Satelindo; SingTel; ThaiCom. PT Telkomsel, Mobile-8, Smart Telecom, PT Bakrie Telecom SingTel, Temasek; PT Sarana Menara Nusantara; PT Tower Bersama.
Table of Contents
1. Key statistics
1.1 Country overview
2. Telecommunications market
2.1 Overview and Analysis
2.2 Market survey
2.3 Historical overview
2.4 Market analysis
3. Regulatory environment
3.1 Historic overview
3.1.1 Telecommunications Law 1989
3.1.2 Telecommunications Law 2000
3.1.3 Ministry of Communication and Informatics (MoCI)
3.1.4 Foreign ownership
3.1.5 Anti-monopoly case
4. Fixed network operators
4.1 Operator Statistics
4.2 PT Telkom Indonesia
4.3 Indosat Ooredoo
5. Telecommunications infrastructure
5.1 Overview of the national telecom network
5.2 Fixed Lines Statistics
5.2.1 Telecom towers
5.3 New developments such as NGN, fibre networks etc
5.3.1 Palapa Ring Project
5.3.2 High-Speed Broadband (HSBB) project
5.3.3 TITO (Trade In Trade Off) Access Modernization Project
5.3.4 Other developments
5.4 International infrastructure
5.4.1 International gateway exchanges
5.4.2 Submarine cable networks
5.4.3 Satellite networks
5.5 Specific IT developments (data centres, cloud computing)
5.5.1 Data centres
5.5.2 Cloud services
5.6 Smart infrastructure
5.6.1 Smart cities
6. Broadband market
6.1 Introduction and statistical overview
6.1.1 Market Overview and Analysis
6.1.2 Broadband statistics
6.1.3 Forecasts – broadband subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
6.2 Broadband Service Providers
6.2.2 First Media / LinkNet
6.2.3 MNC Kabel Mediacom
6.3 Other fixed broadband services
6.3.1 Fixed wireless (WiFi and WiMAX)
7. Digital media
7.1.1 Taxing of Digital Transactions
7.2 Videostreaming / IPTV
7.2.2 Major players
7.3 Social media
8. Digital economy
8.7 Other digital services relevant to the country
8.7.1 Internet of Things (IoT)
8.7.2 Start-up Incubation Programs
8.7.3 Google’s Project Loon
9. Mobile communications
9.1 Market Overview and analysis
9.2 Mobile statistics
9.2.1 General statistics
9.2.2 Mobile voice
9.2.3 Mobile data
9.2.4 Mobile broadband statistics
9.3 Regulatory issues
9.3.1 Overview (general laws and regulations)
9.4 Mobile infrastructure
9.4.1 Digital networks
9.4.2 Other infrastructure developments
9.4.3 IoT and M2M networks
9.5 Major mobile operators
9.5.1 XL Axiata
9.5.2 PT Telkomsel
9.5.3 Indosat Ooredoo
9.5.4 PT Hutchison 3 Indonesia
9.5.5 WLL Operators
9.5.6 PT SmartFren Telecom (SmartFren)
9.5.7 PT Bakrie Telecom (BTEL)
9.5.8 Sampoerna Telekomunikasi Indonesia (STI) / Ceria
9.5.9 Internux (Bolt!)
9.6 Mobile content and applications
9.7 Mobile handsets
Table 1 – Country statistics – 2016
Table 2 – Telephone network statistics – 2016
Table 3 – Broadband statistics – 2016
Table 4 – Mobile statistics – 2016
Table 5 – National telecommunications authorities
Table 6 – Indonesia’s real GDP growth rate – 2006 - 2015
Table 7 – Major fixed-line operators - subscribers – 2012 - 2015
Table 8 – Fixed lines subscribers and annual change by operator - 2015
Table 9 – PT Telkom –Key Operational Highlights – 2016
Table 10 – PT Telkom – Revenue and EBITDA – 2012 - 2016
Table 11 – PT Telkom’s capital expenditure (capex) – 2008 - 2015
Table 12 – PT Telkom – revenue contribution by market segment – 2015
Table 13 – PT Telkom – Operations results by Segment – 2015
Table 14 – PT Telkom’s total fixed-line subscribers – 2004 - 2015
Table 15 – PT Telkom (historical): - fixed lines in service – wireline v. wireless - 2009 - 2015
Table 16 – PT Telkom’s fixed broadband subscribers (historical) – 2012 - 2014
Table 17 – PT Telkom – fixed wireless subscribers – 2003 – 2015
Table 18 – Fixed lines (telephone) and penetration – 2012 - 2016
Table 19 – Fixed broadband subscribers – 2005 - 2016
Table 20 – DSL subscribers – 2001 - 2015
Table 21 – Fixed broadband - subscribers and households - 2016
Table 22 – Internet users – 1998 - 2016
Table 23 – Total international internet bandwidth – 2005 - 2016
Table 24 – Forecast of fixed broadband subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 25 – PT Telkom’s fixed broadband subscribers – 2004 - 2015
Table 26 – PT Telkom’s mobile broadband subscribers – 2011 - 2015
Table 27 – Mobile subscribers – 1995 - 2016
Table 28 – Major mobile operators by System
Table 29 – Mobile subscribers and market share by operator – 2015
Table 30 – Prepaid subscribers – selected mobile operators – 2015
Table 31 – Smartphone users and penetration – 2011 - 2015
Table 32 – Mobile broadband subscribers – 2009 - 2016
Table 33 – Forecast of mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 34 – Frequency spectrum overview - major mobile operators – September 2015
Table 35 – Historical 3G mobile operators and subscribers – 2013
Table 36 – Fixed-wireless (WLL) subscribers – 2003; 2007 - 2015
Table 37 – Fixed-wireless (WLL) subscribers by operator – 2013 - 2015
Table 38 – XL Axiata mobile subscribers – 2005 - 2015
Table 39 – XL Axiata -mobile subscribers – postpaid vs prepaid – 2013 - 2015
Table 40 – XL Axiata: blended ARPU – 2012 – 2015
Table 41 – Telkomsel mobile subscribers – postpaid, prepaid and market share – 1999 - 2016
Table 42 – Telkomsel’s mobile broadband subscribers – 2011 - 2015
Table 43 – Telkomsel subscribers – postpaid and prepaid – 2001 - 2015
Table 44 – Telkomsel prepaid subscribers as proportion of total – 2002; 2004; 2009 - 2015
Table 45 – PT Indosat – revenue and contribution by market segment – 2015
Table 46 – PT Indosat – revenue contribution by market segment – 2011 - 2015
Table 47 – PT Indosat mobile subscribers – 2005 - 2015
Table 48 – PT Indosat - postpaid and prepaid mobile subscribers – 2015
Table 49 – PT Indosat postpaid and prepaid mobile ARPU – 2011 - 2015
Table 50 – PT Indosat: 3G subscribers (historical) – 2012 - 2013
Table 51 – PT Indosat – fixed wireless subscribers (historical)– 2006 - 2014
Table 52 – 3 Indonesia subscribers – 2007 - 2015
Table 53 – PT Telkom’s fixed wireless subscribers – 2003 - 2015
Table 54 – PT Telkom fixed-line subscribers - wireless v. wireline – 2015
Table 55 – SmartFren subscribers – 2010 - 2015
Table 56 – Bakrie Telecom subscribers – 2004 - 2014
Table 57 – Bakrie Telecom – postpaid and prepaid fixed wireless subscribers – 2011 - 2014
Table 58 – Bakrie Telecom - subscribers – voice v. data – March 2014
Table 59 – Bakrie Telecom’s pre and postpaid ARPU – 2004 - 2014
Chart 1 - Fixed Lines (telephone) and penetration – 2012 - 2016
Chart 2 - Fixed broadband subscribers and penetration - 2005 - 2016
Chart 3 - Internet users and penetration - 2005 - 2016
Chart 4 - Mobile subscribers and penetration – 2007 - 2016
Chart 5 - Mobile subscribers and market share by operator - 2015
Exhibit 1 – PT Telkom – major shareholder groups
Exhibit 2 – Major shareholder categories in PT Telkom – December 2014
Exhibit 3 – Palapa Ring Project – specification of rings
Exhibit 4 – Indonesian satellites
Exhibit 5 – Major shareholders in PT Indosat
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