Wealth in Hong Kong: Sizing the Market Opportunity

Wealth in Hong Kong: Sizing the Market Opportunity

Code: VF-VF0016CI | Published: Apr-2016 | Pages: 44 | Verdict Financial
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The number of affluent investors in Hong Kong grew to 2.4 million in 2015, achieving a lower rate of growth than its long-term average since the financial crisis rocked the market in 2008. Yet Hong Kong remains an attractive market. 40% of the adult population is considered affluent, comparable to markets in the developed West, while growth rates still resemble those found in the East. Growth going forward will be more modest for both affluent investor numbers and assets. But with affluent assets still forecast to achieve 7.2% annual growth over the years to 2019 - due to more residents moving into this class and a general appreciation of capital - Hong Kong retains much of its allure as a source of new clients for wealth managers.

Key Findings
- The total number of affluent investors in Hong Kong is forecast to grow to 3.3 million by 2019.

- Retail savings and investments are dominated by deposits, and despite the low returns on offer this is not expected to change as investors will remain cautious.

- High net worth (HNW) investors are equally cautious in their onshore liquid investment portfolio allocations, with a modest 6.3% held in alternatives, commodities, and property.

- Strong global links make Hong Kong HNW investors among the most ready to offshore, with 40% of their wealth booked offshore.


Synopsis
Verdict Financials "Wealth in Hong Kong: Sizing the Market Opportunity" analyzes Hong Kongs wealth and retail savings and investments markets, with a focus on the HNW segment. The report is based on our proprietary datasets.

Specifically the report:

- Sizes the affluent market (both by the number of individuals and value of their liquid assets) using our proprietary datasets.

- Analyzes which asset classes are favored by Hong Kongs investors and how their preferences impact the growth of the total savings and investments market.

- Examines HNW clients attitudes towards non-liquid investments such as property and commodities.

- Identifies key drivers and booking centers for offshore investments.


Reasons To Buy
- Benchmark your share of Hong Kongs wealth market against the current market size.

- Forecast your future growth prospects using our projections for the market to 2019.

- Identify your most promising client segment by analyzing penetration of affluent individuals in Hong Kong.

- Evaluate your HNW proposition by understanding how the local tax system affects your HNW clients.

- Review your offshore strategy by learning HNW motivations for offshore investments and their preferred booking centers.


Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Hong Kong wealth market remains highly appealing
Key findings
Critical success factors
SIZING AND FORECASTING THE HONG KONG WEALTH MARKET
Hong Kongs importance as an offshore center is growing rapidly
Mutual funds dominate the offshore market
Retail non-resident deposits constitute a relatively small proportion of total deposits
The onshore wealth market will continue to grow at a reduced rate
In Hong Kong, HNW individuals represent 1.3% of the total adult population
Affluent individuals will hold 96% of total liquid assets in Hong Kong
DRIVERS OF GROWTH IN THE HONG KONG WEALTH MARKET
Hong Kongs retail investment market has performed strongly in recent years
Retail savings and investments growth will continue to support wealth creation
Investors in Hong Kong are strongly biased towards deposits
Bonds are the fastest-growing asset class
Deposit growth will continue to outstrip GDP growth
2015 was a challenging year for Hong Kongs economy
Interest rates will rise, but gains will be low once inflation is factored in
Bond holding growth will match real GDP growth through 2016-19
The Retail Debt Issuance Programme is helping stimulate bond growth
Equities and mutual funds are most allied to the performance of the Hong Kong stock market
Hong Kongs stock market has performed poorly in recent years, giving little capital appreciation to long-term investors
Despite a disappointing stock market performance, equity and mutual fund holdings experienced strong growth
HNW INVESTMENT PREFERENCES
HNW individuals in Hong Kong allocate 6% of their assets into non-traditional investments
Property dominates non-traditional investments
Dissatisfaction with traditional asset classes is driving demand for alternatives
HNW investors in Hong Kong hold 40% of their wealth offshore
Hong Kongs large expat base will appreciate providers that can assist with offshore investment
Access to better investment options and the expectation of better returns overseas are the biggest drivers of offshore investment
Tax is a comparatively limited driver for offshore investments
The offshore wealth of Hong Kongs HNW individuals is spread around the globe
APPENDIX
Abbreviations and acronyms
Supplementary data
Definitions
Affluent
Common Reporting Standard
Domicile
DTA
FATCA
HNW
Liquid assets
Mass affluent
Onshore
Residency
TIEA
Methodology
Global Wealth Model methodology
Global Retail Investments Analytics methodology
Verdict Financials 2015 Global Wealth Managers Survey
Bibliography
Further reading
About Verdict Financial
Disclaimer


List of Tables


Table 1: Net chargeable income tax rates in Hong Kong, 2009-10 to 2015-16
Table 2: Standard tax rate scenarios, 2015-16
Table 3: Ad valorem stamp duty rates
Table 4: Stamp duty as per property lease
Table 5: Hong Kong: adult population segmented by affluent category and asset band (000s), 2010?14
Table 6: Hong Kong: adult population segmented by affluent category and asset band (000s), 2015e?19f
Table 7: Hong Kong: total liquid wealth segmented by affluent category and asset band ($bn), 2010-14
Table 8: Hong Kong: total liquid wealth segmented by affluent category and asset band ($bn), 2015e-19f
Table 9: Hong Kong dollar-US dollar exchange rate, December 31, 2014 and December 31, 2015

List of Figures


Figure 1: Retail non-resident holdings amounted to $186.3bn at the end of 2014
Figure 2: Non-resident retail offshore deposits constitute a small but growing element of the Hong Kong market
Figure 3: 40% of Hong Kongs population can be considered affluent
Figure 4: Significant inequality means assets are more concentrated among the affluent
Figure 5: Hong Kongs retail savings and investments market will grow at a stable rate
Figure 6: Deposits dominate in the Hong Kong retail wealth market
Figure 7: Bonds will develop the most as a store of value for Hong Kong residents
Figure 8: Deposit holdings growth is forecast to exceed GDP growth
Figure 9: Bond holdings are forecast to experience significant growth
Figure 10: The performance of the local stock market has been weak in recent years
Figure 11: Direct equity investment growth rates have fallen since 2012 and are forecast to remain low
Figure 12: HNW individuals in Hong Kong only hold a small amount of illiquid assets
Figure 13: HNW individuals in Hong Kong currently hold 40% of their assets offshore
Figure 14: Access to better investment options is the biggest motivation for offshore investment
Figure 15: Stamp duty applies to the sale and lease of properties as well as equities
Figure 16: Hong Kong HNW investors use multiple offshore centers
Figure 17: Global DTAs and TIEAs signed with Hong Kong, January 2016

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