World Offshore Wind Market Forecast 2016-2025

Code: 978-1-910045-27-5 | Published: Nov-2015 | Pages: | Douglas-Westwood Ltd
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Now in its seventh edition, the new Douglas-Westwood (DW) World Offshore Wind Market Forecast provides a ten-year view of the sector through to 2025. Cumulative offshore wind capacity is forecast to reach 74GW, driven by a large number of developments taking place in the UK, Germany and China and strengthened by the growth of new entrants to the offshore wind sector, such as France and the USA.


Following a strong year of offshore wind activity in 2015 (3.8GW installed), capacity installed will dip in 2016 to 1.5GW. However, capacity will return to an upward trend, peaking at 9.2GW in 2022. Capital Expenditure (Capex) on projects which have surpassed the conceptual stage of development will total €200 billion (bn) between 2016 and 2025, with potential upside of €70bn (“Expected Capex”).


Capital costs have reduced in recent years, predominantly due to the larger sizes of turbines installed, resulting in less infrastructure (such as foundations) being required per MWh generated. This upsizing presents new challenges for installation contractors but should result in lower operational expenditures once wind farms become operational.


The UK will add circa 10GW of capacity over the next decade, with most of this activity expected to occur by 2022, as Round 3 developments take place. Germany will also install over 10GW but has a longer term outlook, with activity levels peaking in 2021. China is expected to install over 10GW of capacity, lower than previously expected but still representing a strong growth market.


Emerging markets include countries such as the USA and France, who are expected to have their first operational wind farms in 2016 and 2017 respectively. The USA is expected to install 1.8GW of offshore capacity over the next decade, and France 3.2GW.


Key Themes


The report provides detailed market forecasts through to 2025 and is essential reading for companies working within the offshore wind sector. The report focuses on:



  • Key drivers – a discussion of factors driving offshore wind installation activity including low carbon targets, rising energy demand and the need to replace power generation capacity.

  • Commercial insights – including analysis of cost pressures on capital, lifetime costs, risk factors and typical financing models.

  • Technology review – analysis of research and development (R&D) priority areas.

  • Supply chain – a review of the main players, strengths & weak­nesses of contracting strategies and supply chain development challenges.

  • Ten-year market forecast – for new capacity, capital expendi­ture, operating expenditure, wind turbines, foundations, cabling, substations and vessels.

  • Country analysis – detailed operational & capital expenditure forecast, including by capacity and segment analysis.


NEW FOR 2016:


Component forecasts – translate “Expected Capex” into expected capacity and associated components, assuming a proportion of concept / speculative projects go ahead towards the end of the forecast period.
Helicopter forecast – assessment of demand for construction and operations and maintenance (O&M) support, as a result of increased helicopter use as wind farms are installed far from shore.
Key themes – discussion around new trends in the industry including: new technologies, clustering, repowering and logistical solutions including helicopters and service operation vessels (SOVs).


Why Purchase the World Offshore Wind Market Forecast?


DW’s market forecasting is trusted by sector players worldwide, with clients including the world’s top-10 oil & gas companies, top-10 oilfield services companies and top-10 private equity firms.


The report is essential for companies working within the offshore wind sector, wanting to better understand where and when to make investment decisions.


Our proven approach includes:



  • Industry consultation – discussion with a wide-range of com­panies including: project developers, equipment manufacturers, and installation contractors. Throughout the report we high­light pertinent quotes, related to specific aspects of the market.

  • Unique and proprietary data – detailed by project in global offshore wind database. Updated year-round from published sources and insight gained from industry consultation.

  • Detailed methodology – our forecast provides a ‘medium-case’ scenario for market activity, drawn from our databases, which enables the forecasts to be established on a project-by-project basis; taking into account factors such as project size, location, financial backing and progress to date.

  • Comprehensive analysis – comprehensive examination, analysis and 10-year forecast of offshore wind expenditure.

  • Concise report layout – consistent with DW’s commitment to delivering value for our clients, all of our market forecasts have a concise layout consisting of industry background and supporting materials condensed to enable quick review with ‘speed-read’ summaries of key points throughout.

Table of Contents


1 Summary and Conclusions ......................................7
Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 8
Conclusions .................................................................................................................................... 9
2 Drivers and Indicators ........................................... 10
Population & GDP Growth Drive Energy Demand .............................................................11
Changing Energy Mix ..................................................................................................................12
Natural Gas ..................................................................................................................................13
LNG ...............................................................................................................................................14
Oil – Supply & Demand .............................................................................................................15
Oil Price Volatility .......................................................................................................................16
Refining Margins ..........................................................................................................................17
Downstream Facility Population ..............................................................................................18
Refinery Yield and Petrochemical Output ..............................................................................19
Refining Trends & Drivers .........................................................................................................20
Petrochemical Trends & Drivers ..............................................................................................21
Gas Processing Trends & Drivers ............................................................................................22
LNG Trends & Drivers...............................................................................................................23
Politics and Regulation ...............................................................................................................24
3 Market Structure and Methodology .................. 25
Asset Lifecycle .............................................................................................................................26
Asset Services – Definitions .....................................................................................................27
Asset Integrity – Definitions .....................................................................................................28
Supply Chain – Continental Europe ........................................................................................29
Supply Chain – North America ................................................................................................30
Supply Chain – Middle East .......................................................................................................31
4 Asset Services ......................................................... 32
Methodology: Overview ............................................................................................................33
Barriers & Limitations ................................................................................................................34
Market Forecast: By Service Line ............................................................................................35
Market Forecast: By Asset Type ..............................................................................................36
Market Forecast: By Region ......................................................................................................37
5 Asset Integrity ......................................................... 38
Market Forecast: By Service Line ............................................................................................39
Market Forecast: By Asset Type ..............................................................................................40
Market Forecast: By Region ......................................................................................................41
6 Regional Summary .................................................. 42
Regional Summary.......................................................................................................................43
Africa .............................................................................................................................................45
Asia ................................................................................................................................................46
Australasia ....................................................................................................................................47
Eastern Europe & FSU ................................................................................................................48
Latin America ...............................................................................................................................49
Middle East ...................................................................................................................................50
North America ............................................................................................................................51
Western Europe ..........................................................................................................................52
7 Appendix .................................................................. 53
Top 20 Countries .......................................................................................................................54
Data and Text Conventions ......................................................................................................55

List of Figures


Figure 1: Global Maintenance Expenditure by Region 2010-2019........................................................8
Figure 2: Global Population Growth & Energy Demand, 1965-2035 ...............................................11
Figure 3: Historic Primary Energy Demand by Region, 1965-2013 ...................................................11
Figure 4: The Changing Energy Mix 1980-2013 ...........................................................................................12
Figure 5: Levellised Cost of Energy ($/mwh) ................................................................................................13
Figure 6: Natural Gas Prices ($/mbtu) ..............................................................................................................13
Figure 7: LNG Supply by Region (excludes FLNG) ...................................................................................14
Figure 8: FLNG Capex ...........................................................................................................................................14
Figure 9: Oil Price & Demand ...............................................................................................................................15
Figure 10: World Liquids Production Growth, 2005-2014 ...................................................................15
Figure 11: Historical Brent and WTI Oil Prices, January 2007 – February 2015 .........................16
Figure 12: Oil Price to Balance Budgets with Brent at $59 (20 February 2015) .......................16
Figure 13: Historic Brent cracking margins relative to Brent oil price (Jan 08 – Feb 15) .......17
Figure 14: Global Downstream Population 2009-2018 ...........................................................................18
Figure 15: US Refinery Yield 2014 ......................................................................................................................19
Figure 16: Petrochemical Feedstocks and Outputs ....................................................................................19
Figure 17: Global Oil Refinery Utilisation ........................................................................................................20
Figure 18: Global Refining Capacity in 2014 and 2019 ...........................................................................20
Figure 19: Global Petrochemical Price Index 2009-2015 ........................................................................21
Figure 20: Global Petrochemical Capacity in 2014 and 2019 .............................................................21
Figure 21: Global Gas Processing Capacity in 2014 and 2019 ...........................................................22
Figure 22: LNG Demand Outlook 2005-2030 .............................................................................................23
Figure 23: Global LNG Capacity in 2014 and 2019 .................................................................................23
Figure 24: Asset Service Expenditure by Service Line 2010-2019 .....................................................35
Figure 25: Asset Service Expenditure by Service Line 2010-2014 and 2015-2019...................35
Figure 26: Asset Service Expenditure by Asset Type 2010-2019 .......................................................36
Figure 27: Asset Service Expenditure by Asset Type 2010-2014 and 2015-2019 .....................36
Figure 28: Asset Service Expenditure by Region 2010-2019 ................................................................37
Figure 29: Asset Service Expenditure by Region 2010-2014 and 2015-2019..............................37
Figure 30: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Service Line 2010-2019 ...................................................39
Figure 31: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Service Line 2010-2014 and 2015-2019.................39
Figure 32: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Asset Type 2010-2019 .....................................................40
Figure 33: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Asset Type 2010-2014 and 2015-2019 ...................40
Figure 34: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Region 2010-2019 ..............................................................41
Figure 35: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Region 2010-2014 and 2015-2019............................41
Figure 36: Global Maintenance Expenditure 2010-2019 .........................................................................44
Figure 37: Maintenance Expenditure in Africa 2010-2019 .....................................................................45
Figure 38: Maintenance Expenditure in Asia 2010-2019.........................................................................46
Figure 39: Maintenance Expenditure in Australasia 2010-2019 ...........................................................47
Figure 40: Maintenance Expenditure in EE & FSU 2010-2019 .............................................................48
Figure 41: Maintenance Expenditure in Latin America 2010-2019 ....................................................49
Figure 42: Maintenance Expenditure in Middle East 2010-2019 .........................................................50
Figure 43: Maintenance Expenditure in North America 2010-2019 .................................................51
Figure 44: Maintenance Expenditure in Western Europe 2010-2019 ..............................................52

List of Tables


Table 1: Primary Energy Demand Growth by Region ...............................................................................11
Table 2: Asset Service Expenditure by Service Line 2014-2019..........................................................35
Table 3: Asset Service Expenditure by Asset Type 2014-2019 ............................................................36
Table 4: Asset Service Expenditure by Region 2014-2019.....................................................................37
Table 5: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Service Line 2014-2019........................................................39
Table 6: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Asset Type 2014-2019 ..........................................................40
Table 7: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Region 2014-2019...................................................................41
Table 8: Global Maintenance Expenditure 2014-2019 .............................................................................44
Table 9: Global Forecast Maintenance Expenditure by Asset Type & Service Line 2015-19 44
Table 10: Maintenance Expenditure in Africa by Service Line 2014-2019 .....................................45
Table 11: Maintenance Expenditure in Africa by Asset Type 2014-2019 .......................................45
Table 12: Maintenance Expenditure in Asia by Service Line 2014-2019.........................................46
Table 13: Maintenance Expenditure in Asia by Asset Type 2014-2019 ...........................................46
Table 14: Maintenance Expenditure in Australasia by Service Line 2014-2019 ...........................47
Table 15: Maintenance Expenditure in Australasia by Asset Type 2014-2019 .............................47
Table 16: Maintenance Expenditure in EE & FSU by Service Line 2014-2019 .............................48
Table 17: Maintenance Expenditure in EE & FSU by Asset Type 2014-2019 ...............................48
Table 18: Maintenance Expenditure in Latin America by Service Line 2014-2019 ....................49
Table 19: Maintenance Expenditure in Latin America by Asset Type 2014-2019 ......................49
Table 20: Maintenance Expenditure in Middle East by Service Line 2014-2019 .........................50
Table 21: Maintenance Expenditure in Middle East by Asset Type 2014-2019 ...........................50
Table 22: Maintenance Expenditure in North America by Service Line 2014-2019 .................51
Table 23: Maintenance Expenditure in North America by Asset Type 2014-2019 ...................51
Table 24: Maintenance Expenditure in Western Europe by Service Line 2014-2019 ..............52
Table 25: Maintenance Expenditure in Western Europe by Asset Type 2014-2019 ................52
Table 26: Top 20 Countries – Refining Maintenance Expenditure 2015 & 2019 ........................54
Table 27: Top 20 Countries – Petrochemical Maintenance Expenditure 2015 & 2019 ..........54
Table 28: Top 20 Countries – Gas Processing Expenditure 2015 & 2019 .....................................54
Table 29: Top 20 Countries – LNG Expenditure 2015 & 2019 ...........................................................54

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